Bitcoin Price Prediction: Short-term holder cost model reveals limited selling pressure before breaking through $127,000.

Bitcoin has recently shown a mild pullback, but the price still holds above the key support level of $115,000. On-chain data analysis indicates that based on the short-term holder (STH) cost basis model, selling pressure may be relatively limited before the market reaches the first important target level of $127,000. At the same time, the STH unrealized PNL ratio (NUPL) is currently only 0.07, far below the saturation threshold of 0.25, suggesting that short-term holders have a low willingness to take profits, leaving room for price upward movement. Analysts believe that if the support is maintained and the resistance of $117,261 is broken, Bitcoin is likely to restart its upward momentum to challenge previous highs.

Short-term Holder Cost Model: Locking in Key Target Levels

(Bitcoin STH Cost Basis Model | Source: Glassnode) The widely used STH cost basis model provides a framework for understanding investor behavior. This model tracks the average entry cost of new Bitcoin holders and uses the standard deviation channels to identify overbought areas in the market, which typically correspond to profit-taking points. According to the analysis of this model:

1. First resistance level: $127,000 - History shows that this position often triggers early profit-taking, forming a local top.
2. Frenzy Alert Zone: $144,000 (+2σ range) - Typically accompanied by extreme market optimism, which can easily trigger a severe pullback. Current market sentiment suggests that before reaching $127,000, the price still has upside potential and significant selling pressure has not yet formed.

NUPL Indicator Confirmation: Profit Space Remains Ample

(Bitcoin STH NUPL | Source: Glassnode) Short-term Holder Unrealized PNL Ratio (STH-NUPL) provides another perspective on market momentum. Historical data shows that when NUPL reaches the 0.25 threshold, it often indicates that STH profits are nearing saturation, followed by a period of consolidation or pullback in the market.

• Current NUPL value: 0.07 - Significantly below the saturation line of 0.25.
• Market Interpretation: Indicates that the overall unrealized PNL space of short-term holders is ample, and the motivation for large-scale profit-taking is not strong, which reduces the risk of a significant pullback in the near term. This indicator corroborates with the cost basis model, reinforcing the expectation that Bitcoin still has upward potential before encountering significant selling pressure.

Technical Analysis: $115,000 as the Bull-Bear Divide As of the time of writing, the trading price of Bitcoin is $115,448, firmly holding above the $115,000 key support level.

• Upward Path: If market confidence is restored, successfully converting $117,261 into support and breaking through the psychological barrier of $120,000 is expected to lay the foundation for challenging the previous high of $124,474 and aiming for the target level of $127,000.
• Downside Risk: If external pressures such as geopolitical tensions intensify and lead to a breach of the support level, prices may drop to $112,526 or even lower. This would undermine the current bullish logic and force the market to reassess the trend.

Conclusion: Although Bitcoin has recently experienced a pullback, the combination of on-chain data indicators and key technical support levels paints a cautiously optimistic picture. The STH cost model and NUPL indicator both suggest that selling pressure is limited below the $127,000 target level, providing on-chain justification for a potential rebound. However, the market still needs to effectively break through the near resistance of $117,261 to build upward momentum, while also being wary of the $115,000 support line — its stability will be crucial in assessing the short-term balance of bullish and bearish forces. Investors should closely monitor geopolitical risk evolution and changes in short-term holder behavior, as these factors will directly impact Bitcoin's ability to launch toward historical highs after establishing solid support.