Year-End Special Space Review: Outlook on Bitcoin's Future and Macroeconomic Trends

Recently, an online discussion themed "Year-End Special Space: Outlook on the Future of Bitcoin and Macroeconomic Trends" was held on Twitter. This discussion invited Lao Bai, a partner at ABCDE Investment Research, Suji Yan, founder of Mask Network, Ming Dao, founder of dForce, and Jeffrey Hu, head of investment research at HashKey Capital, to jointly explore the future development trends of the cryptocurrency market.

The interview focuses on significant events in the cryptocurrency market in 2024, including the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, the arrival of the halving cycle, and the impact of key events such as Trump's victory on the market. Guests provided in-depth analyses of the underlying logic behind these events from their respective professional fields and offered unique insights into the market trends for 2025.

Guest Introduction

As a research and investment partner of ABCDE, Lao Bai is currently focused on primary market project research and investment (especially AI-related projects) and new types of DeFi, compliant DeFi, and AI agent-related projects in the secondary market.

Suji Yan is the founder of Mask Network and also operates the fund Bonfire Union. Currently, he is mainly focused on the development of non-financial application areas, including AI applications, social products, and gaming.

Ming Dao, as the founder of dForce, mainly focuses on the combination of DeFi and AI agents, as well as new product development. He pays special attention to how to introduce DeFi's economic models and liquidity management into the field of AI agents.

Jeffrey Hu is the Head of Investment Research at HashKey Capital.

2024 Market Review

Guests believe that the most impressive events in 2024 include:

1. The birth of GOAT has revolutionized the understanding of the AI track.
2. The Trump family is directly involved in DeFi projects, showing a fundamental change in the attitude of the mainstream financial market in the United States towards crypto assets.
3. The combination of politics and crypto has arrived earlier and more forcefully than expected.

Retail Participation After Bitcoin Breaks 100,000 USD

Regarding the viewpoint that retail investors will find it difficult to participate after Bitcoin breaks 100,000 USD, the guests believe:

1. The difficulty for retail investors to participate depends on how "participation" is defined.
2. Bitcoin can be used as an investment and financial management tool similar to US stocks and gold.
3. The crypto market may still need to rely on altcoins and memes to sustain high yield dreams.
4. The market is undergoing a self-repair process and may trend towards specialization and American stock market characteristics in the future.

Institutional Investment Strategies

Guests discussed the roles of institutions such as MicroStrategy and BlackRock in Bitcoin investment:

1. Many institutions have already started to emulate MicroStrategy's convertible bond strategy.
2. This participation by such institutions actually expands the inclusiveness of Bitcoin.
3. The institutional holding ratio is expected to stop increasing when it reaches 7-8%.

Bitcoin Ecosystem Status and Future

Regarding the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem, the guests believe that:

1. The Bitcoin ecosystem itself is not necessarily equivalent to Bitcoin.
2. The concept of "Bitcoin Layer 2" may seem a bit forced.
3. The demand for BTC-Fi does exist, but its long-term sustainability is questionable.
4. The Bitcoin ecosystem should focus on areas that are particularly important and require absolute neutrality.

Bitcoin during Trump's presidency

Guests have a cautiously optimistic attitude towards the development of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry during Trump's term.

1. Bitcoin and other crypto assets may become strategic reserves of a nation or sovereignty.
2. More countries and regions may follow suit and establish special zones for more radical attempts.
3. The scope of ETF issuance may expand to include spot ETFs for other crypto assets.
4. Important plans may be introduced at the regulatory level.

2025 Predictions

Regarding the market trends for 2025, the guests presented the following viewpoints:

1. The likelihood of a bull-bear transition occurring in the first quarter is relatively low, likely not happening until the second quarter or later.
2. Ethereum may break its historical high.
3. Traditional financial institutions will participate more deeply in the cryptocurrency market.
4. Large technology companies may incorporate cryptocurrencies into their balance sheets.
5. Layer 2 ecosystem may witness explosive growth.
6. The integration of DeFi and traditional finance will accelerate.

Guests suggested that entrepreneurs seize the opportunity, and ordinary investors should not be influenced by short-term fluctuations and get washed out. Overall, the market is favorable in the long run, but the way the good news materializes may be different from expectations.