El arbitraje de tasas de interés reaparece, las monedas de los mercados emergentes se convierten en un foco de inversión

【金色财经】Reported that the spread trading is making a comeback among emerging market investors, as the market bets on La Reserva Federal (FED) starting to cut interest rates next month, leading to a weaker dollar and boosting interest in high-yield currencies. From路博迈(Neuberger Berma) to安本集团(Aberdeen Group) and other asset management institutions, they are increasing their positions in the currencies of countries like Brazil, South Africa, and Egypt. They believe that the weak dollar and easing volatility create a favorable environment for this strategy. In this strategy, traders borrow lower-yielding currencies and buy higher-yielding currencies. Earlier this year, these trades recorded double-digit returns, but were paused in July due to the dollar's rebound. Recently, poor U.S. employment data has reinforced market expectations that policymakers will have to cut interest rates next month to avoid an economic recession, reviving interest in arbitraje trading. From DoubleLine to UBS, many institutions have recently joined the bearish dollar camp, stating that "the dollar bearish narrative is playing out again."路博迈Emerging Market Debt Co-Head Urquieta stated: "The possibility of a significant rebound in the dollar is very limited, while global economic growth remains relatively robust." He prefers to engage in trampa trading in South Africa, Turkey, Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, and South Korea.