According to a report from Jin10 on June 17, analysts from the financial website Forexlive stated that ahead of the release of the U.S. retail sales data for May, the market priced in a 49 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, which slightly changed to 48.5 basis points after the data was released. The FOMC meeting will make a rate decision at 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday, and the retail sales data is one of the important data points discussed at the meeting. Overall, the report showed weak performance, but the control group is the best indicator of consumer conditions, which was slightly better than expected, while the previous value was also revised upwards. Overall, this is currently a difficult data set to interpret, as concerns about tariffs in March led to a significant rise in sales, followed by two consecutive months of decline.

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