Analyst: Bitcoin falls to key support level, institutional buying becomes a key variable

On August 3, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. published an article stating that due to multiple macro Unfavourable Information influences such as non-farm employment data falling short of expectations (73,000 vs. expected 110,000), the Fed remaining on hold for the fifth consecutive time with internal disagreements, and escalating tariff tensions, the global market has shifted to a "risk-off" mode: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their worst performance since April, U.S. Treasury yields fell by nearly 20 basis points, and gold saw an influx of funds. Bitcoin also came under pressure, quickly pulling back from a high of $119,800 to $112,000, with the 30-day momentum dropping to +3% and the ADX declining to 36, indicating weakened short-term long positions momentum. On-chain activity has decreased, but outflows from trading platforms still show that the market is continuing to accumulate. Despite intensified short-term fluctuations, the structural bullish logic remains unchanged. Strategy and institutions have increased their holdings by over 30,000 BTC in the past week, with the options market's Max Pain stabilizing at $118,000, and high strike bullish positions dominating. The "Crypto Project" initiated by the SEC is also expected to alleviate the industry's long-term regulatory pressure. If Bitcoin holds steady at the $110,000–$113,000 support and the momentum rises above 8%–10%, the market is likely to retest the $119,000–$122,000 range; if it falls below $110,000, it could pull back to $105,000–$107,000. In the coming weeks, the game between macro risks and institutional buying will determine the next directional phase.