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- 🚀 ETH jumped to $4,600 this morning, up 8.69% in 24h!
Just shy of the $4,891 ATH—think it breaks through?
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The Fed's policy direction draws attention, and the price trend of Bitcoin is controversial.
US policy trends spark market follow, Bitcoin price trends spark discussion
Market Observation
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is facing a complex situation. Chairman Powell stated that if it were not for the tariff plans that could affect inflation control, the Fed might have already cut interest rates. Although there was no clear decision on the July rate, it hinted at increased flexibility in policy, and future weak employment data may lower the threshold for rate cuts. Regarding U.S. fiscal policy, the highly anticipated tax and spending bill has passed the Senate by a narrow margin, and the House of Representatives will debate and vote on it on Wednesday. This bill has far-reaching implications, planning to cut taxes, reduce social welfare spending, while increasing military and immigration enforcement budgets, expected to add up to $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. In terms of trade, the president's stance is tough, and he will not postpone the July 9 tariff deadline, particularly pressuring Japan, which exacerbates uncertainty in global markets. Due to the Independence Day holiday, U.S. stock markets will close early at 1 a.m. on July 4 and will be closed all day on July 4.
On the occasion of the 28th anniversary of Hong Kong's return, a licensed virtual asset exchange has set up an offline experience booth at the West Kowloon High-Speed Rail Station to provide convenient services to the public. The chief analyst of the exchange stated that the development of Web3 is not only a technological iteration but also a reshaping of efficiency and trust paradigms. The year 2025 is seen as an important turning point for Hong Kong to restart with digital sovereignty and institutional innovation. Against the backdrop of accelerated trends in on-chain efficiency improvement and the institutionalization of digital assets, Hong Kong is expected to play a leading role in the new global financial order.
Bitcoin dropped to $105,000 this morning. Analysts from a trading platform pointed out that the upward momentum has weakened for the first time, potentially entering a consolidation phase or a local top. The decrease in spot trading volume and the increase in profit-taking make the short-term holder's cost price of $98,700 a key support. Historical data shows that the third quarter typically performs poorly, with an average return rate of 6%. Price volatility is expected to decrease, and the trend may continue to oscillate within a range. Statistics indicate that in the past ten years, seven Julys recorded increases, with an average rise of 9.1%, supporting the market's expectation to challenge the $116,000 level. More pessimistic analysts warn that a real sell-off has not yet begun, predicting that the price may drop below $100,000 to a range of $92,000-$93,000, and could even touch a potential bottom of $60,000-$70,000. Meanwhile, altcoins may face a further decline risk of 50%-80%.
The on-chain market has been lukewarm recently, with no hot fast-track trading seen. However, the blockchain stock boom has brought some highlights, as a certain company's stock price has reached an all-time high, driving a significant increase in the market value of Meme coins on the Solana chain.
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Top 500 by market cap with the largest gains: Humanity Protocol (H) up 106.52%, Cobak Token (CBK) up 50.90%, Useless Coin (USELESS) up 24.89%, Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL) up 17.70%, Aleo (ALEO) up 16.68%.
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