With XRP’s Total Supply Set at 100 Billion, How Much Could It Be Worth in the Future?
In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, XRP has always maintained a unique certainty: the total supply is constantly 100 billion. This supply mechanism has been constant since 2012 XRP From the inception of the Ledger (XRPL), all tokens were generated at once in the genesis block, completely abandoning the traditional mining model. This design laid an immutable foundation for the XRP economic model and became a core focus of its value debate.
XRP supply structure
As of May 2025, data shows that the circulation of XRP is approximately 58.5 billion, accounting for 58.5% of the total supply. The destination of the remaining tokens reveals Ripple’s strategic layout:
- 550 billion XRP is locked in escrow contracts, with a maximum monthly release of up to 1 billion tokens, and any unused portion will be relocked;
- Ripple directly holds multiple ‘whale addresses’, with two main wallets collectively controlling over 3.4 billion XRP;
- Founder Chris Larsen personally holds over 5 billion XRP, and his gradual reduction in recent years has often caused market fluctuations (such as a single transfer of 50 million coins in 2024, worth $29 million).
This centralized distribution has sparked controversy: the top 10 addresses control 20.2% of the circulation, while the top 50 addresses account for as much as 48.7%. In comparison, the top 10 addresses of Bitcoin account for only 5.3%, Cardano for 6.4%, highlighting the uniqueness of the power structure of XRP.
The market effect of fixed supply: scarcity and value logic
Unlike traditional fiat currency or inflationary tokens, XRP’s zero issuance mechanism strengthens its scarcity. During the global stock market volatility in 2025 (such as a 2.3% single-day drop in the S&P 500), XRP’s on-chain transaction volume grew by 18% against the trend, with a single-day price increase of 5.2%. Analysis suggests that its supply transparency has become an important driver for fund hedging.
However, fixed supply is also a double-edged sword:
- Advantages: Eliminate inflation concerns and provide a clear anchor for long-term valuation;
- Challenge: Ripple’s escrow unlocking and executive selling pressure may temporarily suppress prices. For example, in 2021, Ripple’s institutional sales reached 1.5 billion US dollars, coinciding with XRP price Callback period.
The Disagreement between Supply Cap and Price Prediction
Despite the total amount being locked, the market’s valuation expectations for XRP vary widely, reflecting a cognitive gap in its utility and speculation.
Short-term (2025 - 2026)
- CoinCodex is bearish to $1.51, while Cryptomus is bullish to $4.56;
- Technical indicators show that the key support area is between 2.00 and 2.20 US dollars. If held, it may test upwards towards 3.00 US dollars.
Long term (2030 - 2050)
- Conservative forecast: The Plisio model suggests that it could reach $50 by 2030;
- Bold prediction: If it becomes the cornerstone of global payments, the price may reach $2000 - $5000 by 2050, but this target requires a market value growth of tens of thousands of times, its feasibility is questionable.
XRP utility inspection
The core narrative of XRP has always revolved around cross-border payment efficiency. Its advantage of 3-5 second settlement and less than $0.01 transaction fee theoretically requires massive fund flow to support its value. However, on-chain data reveals the gap between ideal and reality:
- The average daily settlement amount is about 3-10 billion US dollars, peaking at 22.8 billion after Trump’s reelection in 2024;
- During the same period, Bitcoin’s daily average settlement was 640.3 billion, Ethereum 56.7 billion, highlighting XRP’s lag in adoption rate.
Despite RippleNet connecting with 300 financial institutions (such as Santander, American Express, etc.) and launching the USD stablecoin RLUSD in 2024 to complement the ecosystem, XRP still needs to break through in terms of actual throughput in payment scenarios in order to validate the logic of a trillion-dollar market value.
Conclusion
The fixed supply of 100 billion XRP is one of the boldest economic experiments in the history of cryptography. It endows the token with the scarce property of resisting inflation but also relies on ecosystem expansion to digest the pressure of custody release. With the settlement of the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit in March 2025 (ending with a $50 million fine) and the launch of XRP futures on CME, regulatory and technological barriers are gradually dissipating.
The future value of XRP will depend on whether Ripple can transform bank partnerships into on-chain liquidity. The supply cap is both a moat for value and a growth ceiling in this process.
