Bitcoin long positions signals remain strong! BTC aims for the key target of 164,000 USD by the end of the year.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been steadily maintaining within an upward channel since it bottomed out at the end of 2022. According to long-term cycle analysis and Elliott Waves, BTC is still expected to reach the key target price of $164,000 by the end of the year. Current technical signals and trading systems show no signs of a peak, indicating that the long positions trend remains intact.

Four-Year Cycle and Elliott Waves Analysis

Analysts point out that the four-year cycle of BTC can be divided into four stages, and it is currently in the "mid-bull market" stage, with still room to go before the next bull market peak.

In mid-September 2023, when BTC was around 26,000 USD, a long-term bullish signal had been issued.

On August 14, 2024, BTC reached a historic high of $124,532.

According to the Fibonacci extension of the red fifth wave (Wv) of Elliott Waves, the ideal target range falls between $164,000 and $216,000.

Technical Signals: Long Positions Still Dominate

On-Balance Volume (OBV) breakout: Every time the OBV breaks through the downward trend line, BTC starts a new round of rise, and a breakout signal has recently appeared again.

The ascending channel is intact: since the end of 2022, BTC has maintained within the blue trend channel, consolidating and rebounding multiple times to reach new highs.

False breakout phenomenon: The short-term pullback on August 14 belongs to a false breakout and does not disrupt the overall rising structure.

Target Price and Time Frame

Assuming BTC reaches a cycle high on December 1, the target price of the blue rising channel will be close to $149,300, leaving about 28% room for rise from the current price level.

Combining cycle and wave analysis, $164,000 remains the core target price by the end of the year. If market sentiment and capital flow continue to be strong, there is even a chance to challenge above $200,000.

Investor Strategy: Follow the Trend, Focus on Signals

Long-term trading system: Since the buy signal was issued at $28,476 on March 31, 2023, there has been no sell signal.

Risk management: Holding positions within the rise channel, and closely monitoring OBV, MACD, and key support levels.

Beware of top signals: Historical sell signals in 2014, 2018, and 2022 all indicated the end of the cycle, and no similar signs have appeared yet.

Conclusion

The long-term rise trend of Bitcoin remains solid, with both technical and cyclical analysis supporting the target price of challenging $164,000 by the end of the year. For investors, following the trend and paying attention to key technical signals will be crucial for capturing profits in this round of bull market. For more real-time market data and in-depth analysis, please follow the official Gate platform.