History may not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Don't miss the opportunity in this market again.

Author: Longye Source: tokennewshome

First, the conclusion:

(1) is now, it may be the best time this year to buy crypto.

(2) I maintain the view I expressed in my article during the bull market last December:

( Besides BTC, let me choose another token that can hold 500,000 USD, I choose hyperliquid, and if it's 5 million USD, I choose SOL.

Back to the "rhythm" itself: Structural opportunities are emerging again

Now is likely one of the best times this year to buy Crypto.

This judgment is not made out of thin air. Whether from the price structure, macro signals, on-chain data, or the evolution path of asset value, the current market state is highly similar to the "low-level reorganization" moment during the spring pandemic of 2020 — Bitcoin plummeted to $3,800 in just a few days, only to stage one of the most astonishing rebound trends in cryptocurrency history.

![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-3a46139f21dbfb3a8fc90695e11359ac(

Nowadays, the market seems to be replaying this script. At that time, the Nasdaq index entered a 3-4 week period of turbulent recovery after a panic sell-off, while Bitcoin quickly completed its bottoming formation within two weeks and then rebounded strongly in the following months.

This time, the short-term sell-off triggered by the "tariff war + new high in U.S. Treasury rates" starting from early April also caused BTC to briefly drop below 74,000, while SOL even temporarily fell below $100, but both have quickly stabilized.

![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-463153b1e10459c8f87d241c1e28de6b(

Currently, it seems that this wave of the bottom has basically been constructed. In contrast, the US stock market, especially the Nasdaq, is still in an extended oscillation range.

![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-b87dfcd289874206bdb2c42f5b759f3d(

In other words: The emotional correction of the crypto market in this round is faster and more decisive than that of the traditional market, and the signs of stabilization also appear earlier.

The market structure change of "weak hands turning into strong hands" is a typical characteristic before a major market rally. Looking back at 2020, Bitcoin rose over 300% within 6 months after the crash in March. If history repeats itself, the current market adjustment may be a good opportunity for positioning.

In terms of time and structure, Crypto has already taken the lead.

Turning Point of Macro Fund Flows: From Misunderstanding to Active Embrace

Beyond this structural pullback, it is worth noting that the macro-level perception of funds is undergoing a change.

A significant trend that cannot be ignored is that traditional funds are pouring into the crypto market at an unprecedented rate. The approval of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has opened the door for institutional investment. Data shows that since its approval in January, these ETFs have seen a net inflow of over $12 billion.

![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-e4945f73a30d7c21dfb237a92382f79c(

Total net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs (USD)

More notably, cryptocurrencies are transforming from speculative tools to utility tools. I recently visited a number of foreign trade enterprises in Shenzhen and Yiwu and found that the use of USDT in cross-border trade settlement has become quite common. A boss engaged in the export of electronic products admitted: "Settlement in USDT is now much faster than bank transfer, and the handling fee is only one-tenth of the traditional method."

This trend is accelerating globally. In high-inflation countries like Argentina and Turkey, people are using stablecoins to preserve their assets; in Southeast Asia, more and more small and medium-sized enterprises are beginning to accept cryptocurrency payments. Cryptocurrency is completing its transition from a "speculative asset" to a "practical tool," a process that will bring more sustained demand support.

In the past month, I have been chatting with some friends in the country who are engaged in export business. They were not originally target users of Crypto and had even been extremely resistant to it. However, against the backdrop of global supply chain reconstruction, geopolitical tensions, and shrinking foreign exchange channels, they have started to frequently raise some previously unimaginable questions:

• Can we find a third country for simple processing and settle in USDT to export to the United States, to evade sanctions?
• Physical goods are too uncertain. Are there any virtual goods that can be done, like NFTs?
• After the factory shutdown, how can I exchange cash to buy coins? More importantly, with the freed-up time, which coins can I speculate on?

You will find that: Crypto is no longer just an 'asset choice', but has become a resource outlet after the 'reality break'.

Among them, USDT is becoming increasingly common: in some cross-border settlement scenarios, USDT has already become a habitual tool. In their words, "It is unrealistic not to hold BTC now."

![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-cedbc2cf7a7e5b14f1334a6534ae37fb(

The Correlation Between Gold and BTC: A Historical Leading Indicator

Another point that is rarely mentioned but is highly significant is: Gold has reached a historical high and is still accelerating.

At the beginning of April, gold once dropped 5% in just 4 days, breaking through $3000, leading to increased market panic. But less than a week later, it rebounded to a new high, and now it has surpassed $3300, entering a strong upward trend.

Historically, within 100-150 days after gold prices reach new highs, Bitcoin often follows and breaks through previous highs. This is not a coincidence, but a resonance signal highly correlated with capital flow and market structure; as well as the high correlation in macro properties between gold and Bitcoin - both are tools against fiat currency devaluation.

![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-4b2fc2b8baeac67b240ace7bb171086c(

![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-0aa14d0784327818e19364d1ef5ba028(

If this historical pattern repeats itself, we may see BTC break its previous high by the end of Q2 or early Q3, with Q4 being a potential market peak.

ETH, SOL, Hyperliquid: Three Structural Narratives and Value Differentiation

Now we come to another important question: After BTC, if we want to hold another asset, what should we choose?

I still maintain my previous viewpoint:

• If it's an investment of $500K, I choose Hyperliquid
• If it's a configuration above $5M, I would choose SOL.

These three represent completely different asset logics and user paths:

ETH: The foundational infrastructure connecting on-chain finance with the real world

Regarding the core value of Ethereum, my judgment is clear: RWA is indeed the biggest narrative for ETH's future, but the timing of its breakout is not this year.

As the second largest crypto asset by market capitalization, I am now clearer that Ethereum will be the infrastructure that combines reality and crypto, serving as a place for institutional funds (not web3 institutions, but real-world funds with utility needs).

The key is RWA, whose fundamentals lie in combining DeFi to systematically transfer offline trade to on-chain, that is, systematically moving offline trade, financing, and credit systems onto the chain.

Although the current implementation of RWA is still relatively fragmented, the infrastructure and regulatory framework are still under construction, the trend is already very clear. Traditional financial giants, including Blackstone, Citigroup, and BlackRock, have started to engage in bond tokenization, cross-border settlement, and other core financial activities based on Ethereum. In the future, not only bonds but also asset classes such as stocks, gold, and carbon emission rights are very likely to circulate on the ETH network.

According to the data, whether it's DeFi or RWA, over 80% of the projects in these two core sectors are built on Ethereum. Taking DeFi as an example, the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi has remained at the level of tens of billions of dollars for a long time, indicating that the underlying demand is still substantial.

![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-0df6fba832b209564529673f150e384b(

Therefore, in my opinion, Ethereum's role is upgrading from a "smart contract platform" to an "operating system for real finance." It is like the "oil" of the digital age—supporting the continuous operation of the entire on-chain economy, and it may also become the underlying infrastructure of the future global financial system.

SOL: A Reflection of On-Chain Activity and Retail Narrative

SOL may not be the most technically advanced public chain, but it is the hottest public chain in terms of on-chain liquidity. From memecoins, GambleFi, to various projects led by strong operations, SOL has become the main stage for retail speculative sentiment. And when retail investors are active, it means sustained liquidity. If you believe that the retail cycle will still see a wave this year, then SOL is the most beta-elastic asset.

![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-9f9498858bcad384b4129988ea0b0b1e(

When the MEME market for SOL is fermenting, just the DEX has a daily trading volume of hundreds of billions of dollars

In the future, the classification of cryptocurrencies will also change, and there may only be three types of coins: Bitcoin, mainstream coins, and MEME coins. MEME coins do not aim to replace BTC or gold, but rather represent a consensus and culture; they will not only be accepted by the public but will also become the most turbulent vortex of funds in the cryptocurrency market.

Solana is the barometer of current market sentiment. The meme coin frenzy and explosive on-chain trading have made SOL the best place for short-term speculation—like the "Las Vegas" of the cryptocurrency world—where wealth myths unfold every day and are filled with euphoric gamblers. But it is undeniable: it is attracting the most active funds and developers globally.

Hyperliquid: The on-chain mirror of TradeFi, the perfect landing for AI trading

Hyperliquid is actually a structural narrative: it is neither a Meme nor an L1/L2, but one of the core scenarios of on-chain finance: perpetual contracts + leverage trading + high-frequency strategies.

This is the platform I have been paying the most attention to and operating on the most frequently recently. I almost perform operations here every week, not because I am following the trend, but because it truly addresses a key issue - how to achieve professional-level derivatives trading in a decentralized environment.

Hyperliquid now appears to be more suitable for professional traders, which is also why it has not been recognized by a larger audience. However, with the development of AI, a large number of strategy designs and executions will be undertaken by AI agents — users only need to express their trading intentions in natural language, and the AI can invoke complex modules on-chain to implement them, such as futures arbitrage, cross-commodity hedging, grid strategies, and so on.

In the future, you will no longer need to perform complex operations manually; you just need to tell the Agent: "Open a 5x leveraged ETH long on Hyperliquid, automatically stop loss if it falls below 2000." The AI Agent will automatically break it down into: contract calls, slippage control, on-chain gas optimization, etc., to help you complete complex trading operations in the most efficient way.

![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-179de2ef91de5a7028122cd37ab53091(

For example, if you want to earn dual returns from "exchange arbitrage + funding rate" during BTC price fluctuations, manual operation requires: monitoring 5 exchanges simultaneously, calculating the funding rate breakeven point, dynamically adjusting margins, and preventing flash crashes. This is too difficult for ordinary people, but for an AI Agent, it only requires a series of basic analyses and operations such as arbitrage capture, funding rate optimization, and risk control response.

In terms of speed, accuracy, and even emotion, AI Agents have advantages that humans cannot match. Of course, AI Agents will not replace human traders, but will simplify professional-grade strategies to the level of ordering takeout through "human-machine collaboration." Hyperliquid, with its high degree of openness and clear on-chain settlement, is very suitable as the trading backend for future "AI x DeFi" scenarios. Therefore, the core battlefield of this transformation is likely to be on on-chain derivative protocols like Hyperliquid.

Summary: Bull markets are always born amid doubt and grow in hesitation.

This round of market activity reminds me of that tumultuous yet opportunity-filled spring of 2020—when the market bottomed out in panic and then launched into an epic rebound. Now, it seems the same script is playing out: gold has first broken through its historical high, like the starting gun going off; traditional funds are quietly entering through USDT; and more Smart Money has begun to consider how to position themselves for the next round of AI-driven trading on Hyperliquid.

The market landscape has become very clear: BTC is digital gold, ETH is the operating system of real finance, SOL is the main battlefield for retail liquidity and sentiment, while Hyperliquid has become the platform for professional traders and future AI trading behavior. As AI officially intervenes in the design and execution of trading actions, Hyperliquid is likely to become the next destination for on-chain behavior migration.

Those who are still waiting for a "better entry opportunity" may not realize that when foreign trade bosses start discussing USDT settlements, when gold breaks through previous highs, and when AI starts to automatically execute arbitrage strategies, the time left for onlookers in the market is already limited. Many trends do not wait for you to fully understand them before they happen—and right now is the window where it is still possible to get on board.