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Under the tense atmosphere of trade tensions, the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar has dimmed.
On May 6, more than 55% of the 83 respondents surveyed by Reuters between April 30 and May 6 expressed concern about the dollar's safe-haven status, up sharply from about one-third in the April survey, though most acknowledged that there were no clear alternatives. "I'm very worried," said Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research at Standard Chartered. "If you had asked me this question two months ago, I would have said that for the dollar, the first thing is stimulus, and the money – whether they actually get the income or not – is secondary. It is now clear that the market is more concerned about the long-term fiscal path." Erik Nelson, macro strategist at Wells Fargo Securities, said: "We are more bearish on the US dollar in the second half of the year. More people will recognize the weak hard data in the US, the Fed will start cutting interest rates as the market is pricing in, the withdrawal of US assets and concerns about the Fed's independence may resurface." Brian Rose, senior U.S. economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, said: "Everything depends on the independence of the Federal Reserve. If there are concerns that the Fed is losing its independence, it will seriously weaken the safe-haven status of the dollar." "We see the yen or the Swiss franc benefiting from the current situation, they are kind of a backup haven." ( gold ten )