Metaplanet Bitcoin: Accelerated Growth Outpaces MicroStrategy, Says Adam Back

In the dynamic world of corporate Bitcoin adoption, companies are constantly evaluated on their strategy and performance. A recent analysis by Blockstream CEO Adam Back has shone a spotlight on two prominent players: Japan’s Metaplanet and the U.S.-based Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). Back introduced a fascinating metric, “months to mNAV cover,” to compare how quickly these companies’ Bitcoin earnings can effectively cover their modified net asset value (mNAV). This comparison offers a compelling perspective on the efficiency of their respective Bitcoin strategies.

Understanding the “Months to mNAV Cover” Metric in Bitcoin Investment

Adam Back’s “months to mNAV cover” metric provides a novel way to look at the performance of companies holding significant Bitcoin reserves. But what exactly does it mean?

• mNAV (Modified Net Asset Value): This is likely a calculation that considers the company’s assets, potentially adjusted for liabilities or specific valuation methods relevant to their structure and Bitcoin holdings. It represents the underlying value the company holds.
• Bitcoin Earnings: This refers to the appreciation in value of the company’s Bitcoin holdings over time. It’s the profit generated purely from the increase in the price of BTC.
• Months to Cover: The metric measures how many months it would take for the accumulated Bitcoin earnings (based on recent performance or projections) to equal the company’s mNAV. A lower number indicates that the company’s Bitcoin holdings are growing in value relatively faster compared to its overall asset base.

Essentially, it’s a measure of how quickly the growth of their primary treasury asset (Bitcoin) can theoretically offset or cover their total value, highlighting the velocity of value accumulation driven by BTC price appreciation.

Why Metaplanet Bitcoin is Showing Rapid Velocity

According to Adam Back’s analysis, Metaplanet is demonstrating significantly faster progress on this metric. He stated that Metaplanet takes just five months to reach mNAV cover, starkly contrasting with Strategy’s 19 months. This makes Metaplanet approximately 3.8 times faster.

Several factors could contribute to Metaplanet’s accelerated pace:

• Relative Scale: Metaplanet, while growing rapidly, likely has a smaller overall mNAV compared to the much larger MicroStrategy. A given amount of Bitcoin earnings would therefore represent a larger percentage of Metaplanet’s value, allowing it to cover its mNAV faster.
• Recent Acquisitions/Funding: Metaplanet has been aggressively acquiring Bitcoin, often through strategic financial maneuvers like issuing bonds. These recent, potentially lower-cost acquisitions during favorable market conditions could contribute significantly to rapid earnings growth as Bitcoin’s price rises.
• Focused Strategy: While MicroStrategy has integrated Bitcoin into its corporate strategy alongside its software business, Metaplanet appears to be pivoting more directly towards becoming a ‘Bitcoin holding company’ in the Japanese market. This focused approach might lead to financial structures optimized for rapid BTC accumulation relative to their existing operations.

This speed isn’t just a number; it reflects how effectively Metaplanet’s capital allocation towards Bitcoin is translating into value growth relative to its size.

Comparing MicroStrategy Bitcoin Strategy and Performance

MicroStrategy, under the leadership of Michael Saylor, pioneered the corporate treasury Bitcoin strategy. They were the first major publicly traded company to adopt Bitcoin as their primary reserve asset, beginning in 2020. Their approach has involved significant debt financing and equity offerings to acquire large quantities of BTC, accumulating a massive stack that currently exceeds 200,000 BTC.

While Back’s metric shows MicroStrategy taking longer to cover its mNAV with Bitcoin earnings, this doesn’t necessarily diminish their overall success or the impact of their strategy. MicroStrategy operates a substantial software business alongside its Bitcoin holdings, contributing to its overall mNAV. The scale of their Bitcoin acquisitions is also vastly larger in absolute terms. The 19 months figure, while longer than Metaplanet’s, still indicates that even for a larger, more diversified company, Bitcoin earnings are a significant factor in their value trajectory.

The comparison highlights that different companies, with varying structures and scales, will exhibit different speeds on this specific metric, even if both have successful Bitcoin strategies.

What Does This Mean for Share Value?

Adam Back’s analysis extended beyond just the speed metric, touching upon the potential implications for Metaplanet’s share price. Based on the rapid mNAV cover speed, he suggested that Metaplanet’s share value could potentially rise significantly, citing a target of 1,340 yen from its then-current price of 533 yen. This represents a potential upside of over 150%.

This projection is likely based on the idea that the market will increasingly value Metaplanet not just on its existing business, but on the rapid, Bitcoin-driven growth of its underlying value. As the company’s mNAV is covered faster by BTC appreciation, its shares might be re-rated to reflect this accelerated value accrual.

However, it’s crucial to remember that stock prices are influenced by many factors beyond just Bitcoin holdings, including overall market sentiment, company-specific news, and the performance of their core business (though Metaplanet is increasingly focused on Bitcoin). Price targets are also subject to market volatility and the unpredictable nature of cryptocurrency prices.

Metaplanet’s Aggressive Move: Issuing Bonds for More BTC

In related news that underscores Metaplanet’s commitment to its Bitcoin strategy, the company recently announced a resolution to issue 21.25 million USD (or 3.4 billion JPY) in bonds. The stated purpose of this bond issuance is specifically to fund additional purchases of Bitcoin.

This move mirrors strategies previously employed by MicroStrategy and signals Metaplanet’s intent to leverage financial instruments to accelerate its Bitcoin accumulation. By issuing debt, the company can acquire Bitcoin without diluting existing equity (at the time of issuance) or relying solely on retained earnings. This aggressive approach, if successful in acquiring BTC at favorable prices and if Bitcoin’s value continues to appreciate, could further enhance the speed at which Metaplanet covers its mNAV through Bitcoin earnings.

It also demonstrates confidence from investors willing to purchase these bonds, indicating a level of market belief in Metaplanet’s Bitcoin-centric direction and the potential for future BTC appreciation.

The Broader Trend of Corporate Bitcoin Adoption

The comparison between Metaplanet and MicroStrategy, facilitated by Adam Back’s metric, highlights a growing trend: corporations adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. What started largely with MicroStrategy has now spread globally, with companies like Metaplanet in Japan, and others across various sectors, recognizing Bitcoin as a potential store of value, inflation hedge, and growth asset.

This trend is significant because it brings institutional capital into the Bitcoin market, potentially increasing stability and driving further adoption. It also provides investors with publicly traded avenues to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding the cryptocurrency themselves.

Companies are adopting diverse strategies for acquiring Bitcoin, including using cash reserves, issuing debt (like Metaplanet’s recent bond issuance), and even integrating Bitcoin into their business operations or services. The success and varying speeds of companies like Metaplanet and MicroStrategy offer valuable case studies for other corporations considering a similar move.

Actionable Insights for Investors

What can investors take away from this comparison and the developing corporate Bitcoin landscape?

• Understand the Metrics: Metrics like “months to mNAV cover” offer new ways to evaluate companies with significant Bitcoin holdings. Look beyond simple BTC count and consider how Bitcoin appreciation impacts the company’s overall value relative to its structure and size.
• Evaluate Strategy and Scale: Recognize that Metaplanet’s faster speed on this specific metric is partly due to its relative scale and perhaps a more focused pivot towards being a Bitcoin proxy. MicroStrategy’s strategy, while slower on this metric, involves a larger scale and integration with an existing business. Both can be valid approaches depending on the company’s goals.
• Assess Funding Methods: Pay attention to how companies fund their Bitcoin purchases (cash, debt, equity). Each method has different implications for financial health and risk. Metaplanet’s bond issuance is a bold move indicating strong conviction.
• Consider Market Context: The performance of these companies’ Bitcoin holdings is directly tied to the price of BTC. While the corporate strategy is key, the broader Bitcoin market cycle will heavily influence the outcome.

Investing in companies with significant Bitcoin exposure is an indirect way to participate in the Bitcoin market, but it comes with company-specific risks and opportunities that differ from holding BTC directly.

Conclusion: A New Race in Corporate Value Accrual

Adam Back’s insightful comparison between Metaplanet and Strategy (MicroStrategy) using the “months to mNAV cover” metric introduces a fascinating perspective on the speed of value accrual driven by Bitcoin. Metaplanet’s reported 3.8x faster speed highlights its aggressive, focused approach and relative scale advantage in leveraging BTC appreciation to cover its asset value quickly. This rapid velocity, coupled with strategic moves like the recent bond issuance to acquire more Bitcoin, positions Metaplanet as a compelling, albeit different, case study alongside the pioneering efforts of MicroStrategy.

While MicroStrategy continues to lead in absolute Bitcoin holdings, Metaplanet’s performance on Back’s speed metric suggests a potentially explosive growth trajectory relative to its size. This comparison is more than just a rivalry; it’s an illustration of the diverse ways companies are integrating Bitcoin into their financial strategies and the novel metrics analysts are developing to evaluate their success in this new frontier of corporate finance.

The race to accumulate and leverage Bitcoin for corporate value is far from over, and companies like Metaplanet and MicroStrategy are setting key precedents for the future of corporate treasuries in the digital age.

To learn more about the latest Bitcoin investment trends, explore our article on key developments shaping Corporate Bitcoin adoption.