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Recently, a series of seemingly independent but actually closely related events have emerged in the U.S. political and financial sectors, sparking speculation about a possible significant shift in U.S. macroeconomic policy.
George Sarevelos, the global foreign exchange research head at Deutsche Bank, pointed out in a recent report that these events could be part of a larger strategic component, which he refers to as the 'Pennsylvania Plan'. The name is derived from the street where the U.S. Treasury is located, suggesting that this plan is closely related to the U.S. government's efforts to address its massive debt.
According to Sarevelos' analysis, the core contents of the plan include: transferring ownership of US Treasury bonds from foreign investors to domestic investors; strengthening domestic financial regulation; vigorously promoting USD stablecoins; pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates; and promoting a significant decline in the USD exchange rate.
This speculation seems to be supported by a recent series of events. The 'Beautiful Great Law' budget bill currently under review by the U.S. Congress is likely to be passed. At the same time, several Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Waller, unexpectedly suggested the possibility of an interest rate cut in July. In addition, the Federal Reserve Board has begun discussions on easing bank regulatory requirements.
If these measures are implemented, they will have a profound impact on the economy of the United States and even the global economy. They not only reflect the determination of the U.S. government to address debt pressures but also embody its strategic considerations in maintaining a dominant position in the global financial landscape.
However, such a policy shift also faces numerous challenges and risks. How to strike a balance between stimulating economic growth and controlling inflation, how to respond to potential international reactions, and how to ensure the stability of financial markets are all issues that policymakers need to weigh carefully.
As the situation continues to develop, whether the 'Pennsylvania Plan' truly exists and how it will impact the global economic landscape is worthy of our ongoing attention.