Can BTC reach a new high in the future?

BTC daily chart cycle analysis conclusion: high position sideways, bearish

1. Overall Analysis

Recently, the price has shown an upward trend after fluctuations, but is currently facing resistance signs, with bullish momentum gradually weakening and market sentiment turning cautious.

• In the short term: The market is in a correction phase, with bullish momentum gradually weakening. It may further test previous support levels (111818.11 or near MA30). Pay close attention to the market's performance in this support range. If it breaks below this area, it could trigger a new round of decline; if it can hold steady, it may welcome a rebound from the oversold condition.
• In the medium to long term: The upward trend of the long-term moving average (MA60) has not yet been broken. If the price can stabilize at the medium to long-term support level (111818.11-113860.43), it may continue to maintain an upward rhythm in the future. However, further confirmation is needed in conjunction with the overall indicator changes.

Suggestion:

1. Position Strategy:
   • Short-term traders should remain cautious and are advised to wait and see for further clarification of the market direction. They can pay attention to stabilization signals near the key support level (111818.11) before deciding whether to participate in the rebound in the short term.
   • If the price effectively breaks below the support at 111818.11, it is advisable to quickly stop losses and observe, and do not blindly chase after the rise.
2. Position Management:
   • Medium to long-term investors may consider reducing their positions or locking in some profits, while paying attention to the performance of support levels. If the market stabilizes and shows clear reversal signals, they can gradually increase their positions in batches.
3. Risk Control:
   • It is not advisable to be overly bullish in the short term; it is necessary to closely monitor market sentiment and changes in key levels, as well as the accompanying trading volume. If key support is broken and MACD momentum further weakens, one must be wary of the risk of a significant market adjustment.
4. Factors to Watch:
   • Pay attention to the strength of the subsequent intraday rebound. If the rebound is weak or the trading volume is insufficient, the probability of adjustment will further increase.
   • Continue to observe whether the KDJ position will further dip into the oversold area. At the same time, monitor the ADX indicator; if it remains strong, be wary of the persistence of the downward trend.

Overall, the suggestion is to focus on stability. The short-term market is leaning towards a sideways and weak trend, emphasizing risk control and waiting for a clearer trend before participating in operations.

2. Technical Analysis

• Candlestick patterns: The appearance of "top reversal" and "doji" suggests a potential short-term downside risk; meanwhile, the "hammer" and "bottom reversal" appeared at previous low levels, indicating that the foundation for the prior rebound is relatively strong.
• MA: The short-term moving average death cross signal clearly indicates that short-term momentum is under pressure, and attention needs to be paid to the effectiveness of the key support provided by the long-term moving average (MA60).
• BBI: The current BBI is close to the closing price, indicating that the market is in a balanced area, but falling below 111818 may increase the downside risk.
• KDJ: The three lines have retreated from a high position and are approaching the 50 level. Short-term momentum is pulling back and has not yet entered a significant oversold state.
• MACD: DIF and DEA have turned down from a high position, and the red bars are shortening, indicating that bullish momentum is gradually weakening, and the market is shifting to a sideways or pullback trend.
• ADX Trend Confirmation: An increase in ADX indicates a strengthening trend, -DI enhancement suggests bearish dominance, and the likelihood of a downward movement in the future is high #BTC