Rebound or Reversal? Bitcoin Market Divergence Intensifies

As the open interest in Bitcoin rises and key price points on the liquidation map continue to increase, market divergence further intensifies. Currently, there are two main viewpoints: one is that the rebound may turn into a reversal, and the other is that this is just the second distribution in a downward continuation.

From the perspective of supply and demand, there are three main arguments supporting the rebound.

1. The change in the profit and loss status of long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH). When LTH experiences widespread losses, it often indicates that the market is approaching the bottom. When STH shifts from loss to profit, it is a signal that the market is warming up.

2. The supply and demand relationship between stablecoins and Bitcoin. The BTC-SSR indicator shows that the momentum of stablecoin inflows into Bitcoin is continuously accumulating, and once it reaches the demand zone, it will be released immediately.

3. The dual anchor effect formed by the high and low chip dense areas. Currently, approximately 11% of chips are concentrated in the two ranges of $60,000-70,000 and $93,000-100,000, which is expected to keep the price within the range of $70,000-93,000.

On the other hand, the view that this is a continuation of the decline is based on:

1. Tariff policies may trigger increased inflation, pushing the economy towards stagflation.

2. The US stock market has entered a technical bear market, and Bitcoin is difficult to stand out on its own.

3. From the perspective of Wyckoff theory, the performance of the US stock market aligns with the characteristics of the distribution phase, and it may enter a bear market next.

Currently, there is a divergence in the market regarding the outlook for U.S. stocks and whether Bitcoin can decouple. Future trends will depend on whether U.S. stocks can stop falling and whether Bitcoin has the ability to rise independently.