Bitcoin's July closure sees downward risk in high and low points within a wide fluctuation and a short long constraint strategy.

The core logic and the continuation of weakness after the early morning spike.

• Bearish signal of double downtrend: Hourly highs are continuously decreasing, and lows are getting lower, forming a weak downward trend—going long is only limited to short-term trades, and it is not advisable to "hold the pattern"; the low point during the early morning spike is the short-term bottom line; if it holds, it may form a short-term bottom, but if broken, the downward trend continues, and it is not advisable to bottom fish before there is a clear signal to stop the decline.

• Ineffectiveness of volume-decreasing rises: The white/yellow arrows correspond to candlesticks that all show volume-decreasing rises, and have not broken through the key resistance of $118,486, which is a "useless rise"; it is essentially a wide-range fluctuation, so do not misjudge it as a reversal.

Key Point Trading Strategy

• Long Position Conditions:

1. Volume breakthrough at 118,502 USD → right-side long (hourly closing price needs to stabilize), target 118,467 → 119,135 USD, stop loss on breakout;

2. 116,543 US dollars false breakdown rebound → light position to try long, false breakdown low point or stop loss at 115,811 US dollars, if not rebound then give up;

3. Stable type long position at 113,811 USD, stop loss at 113,026 USD (deep pullback for low absorption, requires extreme market conditions to cooperate).

• Short Selling Conditions:

1. If the volume breaks below $117,916 → short on the right side, target $117,193 → $116,375, if the rebound cannot recover the stop loss;

2. Light short position at 119,135 USD (2B false breakout), stop loss at 120,128 USD (high position short, requires weak confirmation);

3. 4-hour level breaks below $117,168 → add to short position, looking down to $116,100 → $115,210, resonating with hourly support.

Discipline in Operations During Patterns and Fluctuations

• Boundaries of wide fluctuations:

◦ There is a resistance at $118,467 and support at $117,193. Trading within this range requires strict stop-loss measures to avoid being "whipsawed" (last night's market has validated this);

• Significance of Breakthroughs at Highs and Lows:

◦ Only by breaking through $119,135 and maintaining that position can the downward trend of the high points be reversed; if it falls below the low point reached in the early morning, it will confirm the continuation of the downward trend in low points, and short positions can be increased.

Summary: Bitcoin's closing day sees increased volatility, with the core of operations being: short-term long positions relying on a breakthrough at $118,502, while short-term short positions closely monitor the breakdown at $117,916. Avoid chasing long positions during low-volume increases, and maintain light exposure until key high and low points are broken. Ensure to set stop-losses to prevent erratic movements.