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Fed official Williams: The labor market is moderating, and the economy may rebound.
[Coin World] On August 2, news reported that Fed official and Powell ally Williams stated, "The labor market conditions I have observed over the past year can be described as 'moderate and gradual cooling', but overall it remains in a robust state." Although the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2% in July (up from 4.1% in June), the relatively weak US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data provides room for Powell to push for a Consensus on interest rate cuts.
Williams pointed out that the employment growth data for May and June has been significantly revised downward, which is the real focus of this report. He stated: "This information is crucial as it helps us understand the trends in labor supply and demand, as well as the cooling momentum in the labor market." Regarding the possibility of a rate cut in September, Williams was cautious and did not endorse the market's expectations for a rate cut that soared to as high as 80.0%. He stated: "The challenges faced by market participants are the same as those we face as policymakers. I believe the market's reaction to signals is understandable." Williams expects the U.S. economic growth rate to slow to around 1.0% this year, but he believes that the economy is likely to rebound in 2026.