Altcoin Season Index Signals Possible Rally as Market Forms Historic Double Bottom Pattern

Altcoin Season Index broke above 25 after forming a double bottom pattern near the 17–19 level.

Historical double bottoms in 2017 and 2021 led to altseason peaks above the 80-point index mark.

Current index level is 35, signaling a potential altcoin rally ahead of September 2025.

The Altcoin Season Index has broken above the 25-point threshold, reflecting early signs of renewed altcoin strength following a repeated double bottom pattern.

Repeating Cycles Point Toward a Rally

The Altcoin Season Index chart displays repeating four-year cycles, with clear double bottom formations in 2017, 2021, and now projected again in 2025. In each cycle, the pattern led to a strong upward movement, peaking above 80. This year's pattern mirrors those seen before past rallies, with the index currently around 35 after bottoming near 17–19. Historical data suggests that such a structure often precedes altcoin dominance surges.

Source: X

This year (2017), the index has recovered to between 10 to more than 80. Likewise, in 2021, it increased approximately twofold 2021, going up to almost 90. In case of this trend, we can expect 2025 to take a similar route. This form of the chart also shows the larger rhythm of the market that is related to Bitcoin halving events, as altcoin rallies are a common occurrence a few months after.

Market Sentiment Shift

A recent tweet from @rektfencer stated, “Only fools aren't buying this dip,” further affirming a shift in sentiment. The message predicted a “MEGA BULL RUN” starting in September, calling the current prices a final discount before a market-wide bounce. Though speculative, the tweet aligns with the current market positioning on the index.

With the index breaking above the 25-level—often viewed as Bitcoin dominance territory—the statement underscores the growing investor belief in altcoin recovery. The timing suggested in the tweet aligns with historical Q3 or Q4 altcoin rallies seen after Bitcoin peaks.

Altcoin Market Readies for Momentum Shift

As the Altcoin Season Index approaches the 40 mark, historical trends suggest potential momentum toward the 75–90 range. Investors are rotating capital into altcoins such as Ethereum and Solana, following previous cycle behavior. This rotation historically follows Bitcoin market peaks and ETF-driven attention shifts.

While technical signals remain encouraging, market observers note macroeconomic conditions and regulatory shifts as variables that could influence the current structure’s progression.

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