Crypto Assets Market Dynamics and Forecast Analysis

1. Macroeconomic and Regulatory Environment

The core inflation data in the U.S. has been below expectations for five consecutive months, but there are differing views in the market regarding future trends. Some believe that the impact of tariffs will become evident in July and August, while others emphasize companies' pricing restraint amid weak demand. There are also differing opinions within the Federal Reserve: some officials suggest a possible lowering of the threshold for interest rate cuts, while others insist on maintaining a tightening policy. Currently, the Federal Reserve tends to adopt a wait-and-see approach while emphasizing the importance of being wary of misguidance from short-term data and the independence of the central bank.

In terms of regulation, the U.S. Congress is accelerating the legislative process by establishing "Crypto Assets Week". The "GENIUS Act" will become the core of the regulatory system, incorporating the stablecoin market into the regulatory framework, requiring reserves to be in cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds. This initiative not only standardizes the market but also helps consolidate the digital dominance of the U.S. dollar and create demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. Additionally, large tech companies are laying out plans for dollar/HK dollar stablecoins, attempting to establish a new cross-border settlement network. This shift in regulatory paradigm may strengthen Bitcoin's position as a digital gold asset allocation.

2. Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis

After Bitcoin reached a new high of $123,000, it entered a correction phase. Several analysts expect Bitcoin to pull back to the range of $113,800 to $117,000 to fill the CME futures gap, followed by a potential new round of increase. Market data shows that the profit indicator for short-term holders is in an overheated phase, but the cycle top usually lags behind, with the next key level at $136,000 and strong support in the range of $93,000 to $109,000.

Ethereum's market capitalization share has surpassed 10%. Although its performance this year has been weaker than Bitcoin, the trends in stablecoins and tokenization are driving its demand growth. On the technical side, analysts expect Ethereum to potentially fill the gap between $2,830 and $2,925 before breaking through $3,200. The increase in Ethereum's trading activity is correlated with a rise in small-cap stocks, which presents a potential for catch-up gains in the context of expected liquidity easing.

3. Altcoin Market Trends

The altcoin market shows a clear rotation of sectors: payment tokens have taken the lead, large-cap coins are gathering momentum, and emerging public chain ecological projects are forming a relay team. The popularity of Chinese Meme tokens remains strong, with multiple projects hitting historical highs. AI-related tokens have also seen significant increases. Analysts point out that after Bitcoin breaks a new high, the altcoin market window usually lasts for 3-5 weeks, and the current cycle may continue for 1-2 months.

4. Market Data Overview

• Bitcoin: $117,798, Year-to-date +26.05%
• Ethereum: $2,947, Year-to-Date -5.91%
• Fear and Greed Index: 71 (Greed)
• Market Share: BTC 62.9%, ETH 10.2%
• Total liquidation amount in 24 hours: 355 million USD

5. ETF Capital Flow

• Bitcoin ETF: Net inflow for 9 consecutive days, totaling +$403 million
• Ethereum ETF: Net inflow for 8 consecutive days, totaling +$192 million

6. Recent Important Events

• July 16: Binance wallet conducts Hyperion (RION) Bonding Curve version TGE
• July 16: Eclipse opens ES token airdrop
• July 16: The U.S. House of Representatives holds a hearing on digital asset taxation policy.
• July 17: The Federal Reserve publishes the Beige Book on economic conditions.
• July 17: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.

Multiple projects will have token unlocks in the near future, including Arbitrum, UXLINK, Solv Protocol, ApeCoin, and ZKsync.

7. Industry Trends

• An institution has purchased a large amount of Ethereum, totaling 33366 coins of ETH
• Movement completed the buyback of $MOVE token
• Standard Chartered Bank launches spot trading services for Bitcoin and Ethereum
• Ondo Finance acquires Strangelove to accelerate RWA platform development
• SharpLink raised a large amount of funds and partially invested in ETH
• Pump.Fun is conducting a large-scale SOL buyback.

The Crypto Assets market continues to fluctuate, and investors should closely monitor market trends and important events, while managing risks.