Crypto Market Update: Bitcoin Breaks $110,000, Ethereum Approaches Key Resistance Level

Market Observation

Although the United States has extended the tariff suspension period to August 1, it has threatened this week to raise taxes on imported goods from major trading partners, leading to ongoing uncertainty about the final tariff levels. A UBS report shows that the tariffs currently in place are equivalent to a tax of 1.5% of GDP on U.S. importers, with annual tariff revenue exceeding $300 billion. The lagging effects on inflation are expected to be reflected in the July CPI data released in August. This delay is due to inventory buffers in companies, slow transmission of intermediate goods prices, and the bi-monthly sampling mechanism of the CPI. Historical experience shows that a 10% general tariff takes 2-3 months to fully reflect in the price index.

In terms of interest rate policy, the Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma: the New York Fed survey shows that one-year inflation expectations have fallen to 3%, but there are significant pressures from components such as medical costs (9.3%) and college tuition (9.1%). Meanwhile, the labor market presents conflicting signals—concerns about unemployment are easing, but reemployment is becoming more difficult.

With the Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation" set to take effect in August, the market is full of expectations for the compliance dividends brought by the clarified regulatory framework. An analyst pointed out that some Hong Kong stock stablecoin concept stocks have recently doubled in value, reflecting the market's strong anticipation of compliance dividends after the August regulation takes effect. The regulatory framework revealed by Deputy Financial Secretary Xu Zhengyu will cover core requirements such as anti-money laundering and reserve audits, with the first batch of licenses expected to be issued within the year, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape of the industry. However, the analyst also warned that for stablecoins to disrupt traditional payment systems, they still need to overcome three major obstacles: the profit distribution mechanism between financial institutions and technology companies, the challenge of cross-border regulatory coordination, and the stress testing of systemic risks under extreme market conditions.

The crypto market is experiencing a crucial technical breakthrough and cycle validation phase, with both bulls and bears fiercely battling around the $110,000 mark. One analyst pointed out that if the price cannot break through this resistance level, it may quickly fall back to $100,000; conversely, it is expected to challenge $120,000. More optimistic predictions suggest that Bitcoin's next phase could rise to a range of $120,000 to $125,000. Looking at a longer time frame, some analysts estimate based on historical halving cycles that the peak of this bull market may occur between mid-September and mid-October 2025.

On the Ethereum front, ETH is approaching the triangle resistance level of 2630 USD after breaking above 2600 USD. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in trading volume to confirm the trend. Meanwhile, the optimistic sentiment in the market towards Ethereum has also transmitted to the stocks of related tokens, with several associated listed companies experiencing significant stock price increases.

In the altcoin market, a certain project announced its migration of the DEX on a certain network to another network, gradually phasing out the native token, resulting in a 60% drop in the token's value within 24 hours. Although the token rivalry between two projects in another ecosystem remains heated, the related tokens have experienced a correction of over 30%, and the market currently lacks a sustainable new narrative.

Key Data (As of July 9, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $108,513 (Year-to-date +15.99%), daily spot trading volume $21.324 billion
• Ethereum: $2,600.10 (Year-to-date -22.06%), daily spot trading volume is $15.521 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 67 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 0.52 sat/vB, ETH: 0.3 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 64.2%, ETH 9.3%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9728
• Sector Performance: The DeFi sector rose by 2.89%; the L2 sector rose by 2.78%.
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 59,563 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 121 million USD, including 22.3 million USD in BTC liquidations and 34.98 million USD in ETH liquidations.

ETF Inflows (as of July 8)

• Bitcoin ETF: +80.08 million USD, continued net inflow for 4 days
• Ethereum ETF: +46.6308 million USD, net inflow for 3 consecutive days

Today's Outlook

• The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting. (July 10, 02:00)
• In 2025, FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Msalem will speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. (July 10, 21:00)
• Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 5th: ( million ): Previous value 23.3, forecast value 23.5 (July 10th 20:30)

Hot News

• A certain venture capital firm has liquidated its COMP holdings and today transferred 400,000 COMP to the trading platform.
• A stablecoin issuer holds $8 billion worth of gold in a secret vault in Switzerland.
• World Gold Council: Global gold ETFs increased by $38 billion in the first half of the year, with daily trading volume setting a semi-annual record.
• A listed company purchased 7,689 Ether last week, with total holdings exceeding 200,000 coins and receiving 322 Ethereum staking rewards.
• "Yiwu merchants start accepting stablecoins" ranked 4th on Baidu's hot search list.
• The number of addresses holding a certain token is about to exceed 1 million, at which time 1 trillion tokens will be burned.
• A publicly listed real estate company plans to establish a Bitcoin reserve through a $500 million equity transaction.
• Multiple listed companies are adjusting their cryptocurrency holding strategies, or raising funds to initiate Ethereum asset management.