Market pressure is increasing, waiting for new policies to be implemented.

1. Macroeconomic Overview This Week

1. Market Performance

This week, risk assets showed a volatile trend. Apart from gold continuing to rise, the overall performance of the US stock market, cryptocurrencies, and the commodities market was weak. A certain country's leader's tough stance on car tariffs led to a noticeable weakening of the market in the second half of the week.

The cryptocurrency market is generally calm but with weak momentum. Despite the introduction of new stablecoin legislation in the United States, the market is still waiting for new directions after the implementation of new policies amid overall poor liquidity and ongoing macro uncertainty.

2. Economic Data Analysis

The latest GDPNow forecast for the first quarter GDP is -1.8%, unchanged from last week. The trend of economic weakness in the United States is evident, but there are no clear signals of a recession yet.

The labor market is showing signs of fatigue, with unemployment rates rising in 290 metropolitan areas. The number of continuous unemployment benefit applications is at a recent high, indicating that certain companies' layoff plans are not going smoothly.

February PCE data exceeded expectations, but personal spending declined, reflecting a situation of weak economic performance alongside high inflation.

3. Liquidity and Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve's broad liquidity has slightly improved, maintaining around 6 trillion.

The yield curve of government bonds shows a "bear steepening" trend, with long-term bonds rising faster than short-term ones. The market still has concerns about inflation and expects that the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to cut interest rates ahead of schedule.

The high-yield bond credit spreads continue to widen, indicating that investors are facing increased pressure from the microeconomic environment of enterprises, and the risk of a U.S. economic recession may intensify.

2. Outlook for Next Week

1. Focus Points

The new tariff policy will be the biggest variable in the recent risk market. If it exceeds expectations or encounters retaliation, it could have a significant impact on the fragile market.

Need to pay attention to the U.S. unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data to further assess recession risks.

2. Investment Advice

• Defense-oriented, risk assets face dual pressure
• Moderate allocation of hedging assets such as gold, U.S. Treasury bonds, etc.
• If the new policy impacts are less than expected, market sentiment may improve, but more positive stimuli are still needed.
• Stay cautious, avoid chasing highs and selling lows.

The current market is still in a situation of "weak economy + high inflation + policy uncertainty," putting pressure on risk assets. The future direction depends on the impact of new policies and employment data. In the short term, it is still necessary to maintain a defensive strategy and patiently wait for clearer signals.