Bitcoin Spot ETF First Week Performance: Total AUM of 26.9 Billion USD, Average Price Fall of 14.8%

On January 11, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission officially approved 11 Bitcoin Spot ETFs. How did the market perform a week after these ETFs were listed? What impact does this have on Bitcoin? By analyzing the basic information and trading data of each ETF, the following points were discovered:

1. As of January 19, the total assets under management of 11 Bitcoin Spot ETFs was approximately $26.975 billion. The top three are Grayscale (235.37 billion ), iShares Bitcoin Trust (11.99 billion ), and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (10.17 billion ). During the period from the 11th to the 19th, the total assets under management decreased by 8.41%.

2. As of January 19, 8 ETFs that disclosed their coin holdings collectively held 635,700 BTC, of which Grayscale held approximately 567,000 BTC. The holdings of iShares Bitcoin Trust, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF are also relatively high, at approximately 28,600, 24,900, and 10,200 BTC, respectively.

3. Bitcoin Spot ETF generally fell after opening, with the average market price of 11 ETFs dropping by 14.80%.

4. The price of Bitcoin Spot ETF is highly volatile. The average daily fluctuation of the market price of 11 ETFs is about 5.63%, which is higher than the 4.78% of Bitcoin during the same period.

5. Among the 11 Bitcoin Spot ETFs, 5 are trading at a discount, with the highest discount rate at 0.51% and the lowest at approximately 0.27%. The arbitrage space based on the discount rate has already narrowed, and it is expected that future arbitrage activities will have a limited impact on market selling pressure.

6. The total trading volume within 6 days after the listing of the Bitcoin Spot ETF was approximately $16.691 billion. The largest trading volume was GBTC, reaching $9.012 billion, followed by IBIT and FBTC, with $3.194 billion and $2.649 billion respectively.

7. After the launch of the Bitcoin Spot ETF, the cumulative net inflow of funds in 6 days was approximately 1.208 billion USD, with a net inflow of 628 million USD on the first day. The Spot ETF has injected new funds into the crypto market, but it is still a distance away from driving a new round of "institutional bull market."

8. American investors are relatively optimistic about Bitcoin Spot ETFs, while Asian investors are relatively cautious.

9. The Bitcoin market has recently shown some positive characteristics: increased market buying power, higher on-chain transaction activity, and more Bitcoins are being accumulated.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Basic Information

According to data from the official websites of 11 issuers and cross-verified with third-party data, as of January 19, the total asset management scale of 11 Bitcoin Spot ETFs is approximately $26.975 billion. Among them, Grayscale accounts for $23.537 billion, which is 87.25% of the total. iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund also have asset management scales exceeding $1 billion, while other ETFs are smaller, some of which are less than $100 million.

Eight ETFs that disclosed their holdings collectively hold 635,700 BTC, with Grayscale holding approximately 567,000 BTC, accounting for 89.20%. iShares Bitcoin Trust, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF also have relatively high holdings, approximately 28,600, 24,900, and 10,200 BTC, respectively.

In the face of fierce competition, several institutions have adopted a strategy of lowering management fee rates. Six ETFs implement a 0% management fee rate, but after the promotional period ends, it will rise to around 0.2%-0.3%. Grayscale still adopts a high management fee rate of 1.5%, and the fee rate for Hashdex Bitcoin ETF has also reached 0.9%.

VanEck and Bitwise intend to donate 5% and 10% of ETF profits to Bitcoin core developers. Based on current estimates, these two donations will total approximately $96,100. If the ETF develops smoothly, the donation amount will increase with the growth of asset management scale.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Trading Situation

Bitcoin spot ETF opened with a general fall, with the average market price of 11 ETFs dropping by 14.80%. DEFI had the largest drop exceeding 17%, while GBTC had the smallest drop of about 12%.

Except for EZBC, other ETFs have seen increases after opening. Based on the highest prices, the average maximum increase of 11 ETFs is about 5.91%. FBTC's maximum increase exceeds 20%, and IBIT exceeds 7%.

The price of ETFs fluctuates significantly, with the average daily price amplitude of 11 ETFs being approximately 5.63%, higher than Bitcoin's 4.78% during the same period. The average daily amplitude of FBTC reached as high as 8.10%, while most ETFs were at the 5%-6% level.

As of January 19, 5 ETFs are in a discount state, with the BRRR discount rate being the highest at 0.51%. The GBTC discount rate is the lowest at approximately 0.27%, further narrowing the arbitrage space. 6 ETFs are in a premium state, with the BTCO premium rate reaching as high as 0.42%.

The total trading volume of the Bitcoin Spot ETF in the first 6 days after its launch is approximately $16.691 billion, with an average daily volume of $2.782 billion. The trading scale of GBTC reached a maximum of $9.012 billion, while IBIT and FBTC were $3.194 billion and $2.649 billion, respectively. The trading volume of the 4 ETFs was less than $100 million.

According to calculations, the net inflow of funds for Bitcoin Spot ETF after 6 days of listing is approximately $1.208 billion. The net inflow on the first day was $628 million, and on the 17th day, it was $562 million. Overall, this has injected new funds into the crypto market, but there is still a distance to go to drive a new round of "institutional bull market."

Bitcoin Market Reaction

Bitcoin reached a recent peak of $46,936 in the Spot ETF a couple of days ago, and has since pulled back. On January 19, the price had fallen to $41,261, a 12.09% drop from the peak.

American investors have an optimistic attitude towards Bitcoin Spot ETFs, while Asian investors are relatively cautious. Bitcoin prices perform well during US working hours, while they tend to be weaker during Asian working hours.

From other indicators, the Bitcoin market has recently shown some positive characteristics:

1. The purchasing power of the market has increased. The stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) has decreased from 13.022 to 11.662, a decline of about 10.44%, indicating an increase in market "purchasing power."

2. On-chain trading activity has increased. Velocity rose from 0.011 to 0.022, indicating a clear trend of enhanced overall activity.

3. More Bitcoin is being accumulated. The accumulation trend score rose from 0.72 to 0.86, indicating a clear tendency for participants to accumulate tokens.

Overall, the positive signals from the Bitcoin trading market and on-chain data demonstrate the market's confidence in future price movements. Bitcoin is also expected to face its fourth halving on April 22 this year, and there are strong expectations for a price increase following this halving. It is worth further observing whether a positive feedback loop can be established between Bitcoin prices and Spot ETF.