Messari 2025 Crypto Assets Market Outlook Report Analysis

1. Overview

Messari has released a 190-page report covering the current state of the Crypto Assets industry, analyses of various tracks, and insights from analysts. The report employs analytical methods such as blockchain space economics, ecosystem valuation frameworks, narrative economics, and innovation theory.

2. Macroeconomic Environment

1. Economic and Regulatory Environment

2025 may be a key year for the reform of US crypto policies. The FIT21 and stablecoin legislation are expected to promote the transparency and standardization of global crypto regulation policies. However, there is still uncertainty regarding the future direction of policies.

Multiple institutions predict that the market trend in 2025 will present a "banana shape": a new high in the first quarter, a significant adjustment in the second quarter, and recovery in the third and fourth quarters, reaching a new annual high again.

2. Institutional Dynamics

In 2024, institutions will mainly focus on the application and operation of Bitcoin/ETH spot ETFs, as well as promoting RWA business. The boundaries between financial technology, payments, and Crypto Assets are gradually becoming blurred.

In terms of investment, institutions are adopting a "barbell strategy" consisting of AI and DePin, with the total financing in these two areas growing by approximately 100% and 300% compared to last year. It is expected that the U.S. government may consider collaborating with DePin projects by 2025.

3. On-chain User Distribution

It is estimated that about 30 million to 60 million of the active addresses are real monthly active users. Users are mainly distributed across platforms such as Phantom wallet, stablecoins, Telegram mini programs, prediction markets, a certain trading platform, and a certain DEX.

The growth of on-chain users in 2025 may rely more on the product strength of Dapps, rather than Bitcoin hitting new highs or stories of getting rich with MeMe coins. Chain abstraction and aggregated front-ends may see widespread adoption in 2025.

3. Track Analysis

Bitcoin

• Inscriptions/Runes may revive under the stimulation of the consumer chain mainnet launch and NFT resurgence.
• The BitVM2 project is expected to make progress.
• BTC Staking projects may focus on increasing the penetration rate of BTC holders.

Ethereum

• The status of ETH spot ETF has been elevated after approval.
• The upgraded Blob pricing mechanism in Cancun may affect the DA fees for L1 capturing L2.
• The Ethereum ecosystem remains the strongest L1 ecosystem.

Solana

• Key events in 2025 include the release of the Firedancer client, the adoption of MetaDAO, new DePin projects, the development of AI Agents, and the potential approval of a SOL spot ETF.

Other L1 and Infrastructure

• High-performance monolithic L1s like Monad and Sonic may join the competition.
• There may be a serious surplus of block space.
• The narrative of modular public blockchains' DA may be coming to an end, as Celestia and Avail transform into a global cross-chain interoperability coordination layer.
• Avalanche may undergo a significant upgrade, showing performance in RWA and Web3 games.
• The prospects of Cosmos are uncertain and depend on the coordination ability of ICF.
• Blockchain abstraction protocols, such as certain networks, may accelerate the transition from concept to productization.

DeFi

• The ratio of PerpDEX trading volume to CEX is worth paying attention to.
• RWA may focus on the tokenization of U.S. Treasury bonds and on-chain yield output.
• In terms of points finance, Pendle may occupy a key ecological position.
• In terms of resisting MEV, a new intention architecture model has emerged.

AI x Crypto

• It can be divided into four categories: decentralized computing networks, coordination platforms, AI tools and services, and applications.
• Events to watch in 2025 include the rise of new AI project token issuance platforms, advancements in decentralized computing power training, and the on-chainization of AI Agents.

DePin

• Divided into Physical Resource Network ( PRN ) and Digital Resource Network ( DRN )
• The new energy DePin project and certain data storage projects are worth paying attention to.
• Competition in the DePin field may intensify in 2025.

Consumer Field

• Web3 games may shift from Play2Airdrop to Pay2Airdrop
• The MeMe coin launch platform is trending towards gamification and personalized design.
• DeSoc and SocialFi may still have no significant breakthroughs in 2025.
• NFTs may usher in a renaissance, and the concept of consumer chains may emerge.