Recently, the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts in September 2025 has sparked widespread attention in the market. Data from the two major platforms, Polymarket and CME, show interesting differences, reflecting investors' varying views on the future direction of monetary policy.

Polymarket's data shows that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 8%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 79%, and the probability of maintaining the rate is 12%. In contrast, CME's "Fed Watch" data shows that the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 4.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is as high as 95.8%.

From the Polymarket charts, it can be seen that after August, the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut has sharply risen, reaching a dominant 79%. At the same time, the expectation for a 50 basis point rate cut has gradually climbed from its previous low, currently standing at 8%. This indicates that the market generally believes that a rate cut in September is almost a certainty, and the focus has now shifted to the extent of the rate cut.

The reasons for this expectation difference may be related to recent economic data. The CPI data for July shows a moderate increase in inflation, coupled with weak non-farm payroll data, which has strengthened the market's expectations for a rate cut in September. However, the U.S. Treasury Secretary hinted at a significant rate cut of 50 basis points, while some Fed officials expressed a desire to more comprehensively assess the impact of tariffs on inflation before making a rate cut decision, leading to a divergence in market expectations.

For the cryptocurrency market, the Fed's decision to cut interest rates could have significant implications. The larger the cut and the more it exceeds market expectations, the stronger the upward momentum it may bring to the crypto market. Investors are closely following the results of the September Fed meeting, hoping to see whether there will be a moderate cut of 25 basis points or a substantial move of 50 basis points.

In this context, cryptocurrency investors can adjust their investment strategies and positions based on these expected data. However, it is also important to be aware of the potential risks that may arise from interest rate cuts, such as possible asset bubbles or long-term inflationary pressures. Therefore, while seizing potential opportunities, it is crucial to remain cautious and rational.