Dogecoin is at risk of a 15% decline as key holders move away.

Dogecoin has adjusted by 2% in the past 24 hours, wiping out the weekly gains and pushing the 7-day performance into negative territory. Several on-chain indicators suggest that the downward trend of Dogecoin may not be over yet. Specifically, the analysis of data on the two main groups and profit supply shows that the potential downward trend may continue. If the main support level is broken, Dogecoin could fall further, potentially decreasing by 15% from the current level. Two Important Groups Are Pulling Back The HODL Waves index shows that two key groups holding Dogecoin are currently falling in position. These groups are: Holders of bonds with a maturity of 6 months to 12 months have seen their shares fall from 15.46% to 14.705% over the past two weeks. Holders of bonds with a maturity of 1 month to 3 months have experienced a sharper decline from 8.0% to just 4.614%.

This shows that both long-term and short-term believers are selling, not just short-term traders. These groups often signal a change in sentiment among the broader holding group. When both reduce their holding proportions, it often means that confidence in a short-term price recovery has waned. This is particularly concerning because this change is occurring during a downturn, rather than after a price increase. This means that these holders are not taking profits; they are exiting with losses or minimal gains, which could signal fears of a deeper decline. The HODL wave shows the distribution of coins by age, helping to identify the different groups of people holding tokens and how long they have held them before moving. The Supply Source of Profits Remains High and That Is a Problem Currently, 76.95% of the circulating supply of Dogecoin is still profitable. Historically, whenever this figure exceeds 73%, the price will adjust. The last time Dogecoin was at this price, which was on July 30, it was traded at around $0.22. The price fell from that level to $0.19 right after.

At that time, the profit supply ratio had fallen to 61.79%, and only after readjustment did the price of Dogecoin start to rise again. Currently, we are at the same level of 76%, and the risk of a similar scenario may repeat: the profit supply needs to fall before buyers return. Until then, every price increase will face strong selling pressure. This is also related to the HODL Wave. When the supply of high profits increases and medium- to long-term holders start to reduce their positions, this often reflects the fear of losing profits or anticipating a deeper decline. To get updated information about the market and technical analysis of tokens: Do you want to know more detailed information about tokens like this? Subscribe to the Daily Cryptocurrency Newsletter by Editor Harsh Notariya here. Dogecoin Price Chart And Important Data Confirming Bearish Pressure Technically, Dogecoin is fluctuating around the important support level of $0.21. If it breaks below this level, the price structure will shift to a clear downtrend. The next important support level is $0.20, but the broader bearish target lies at $0.18, marking a 15% fall from the current price.

Meanwhile, the Bull and Bear Power (BBP) indicator has turned negative. This means that selling pressure has surpassed buying pressure, reinforcing what the on-chain data has shown. Investors are selling, while buyers are staying away. The Bull and Bear Power indicator (BBP) — also known as the Elder Ray Index — measures the strength of the buyers (bên mua) and sellers (bên bán) by calculating the difference between the highest price and the moving average. This indicator helps determine whether bullish or bearish forces are currently dominating the market. The momentum shift is clear. If the $0.21 level cannot be held, the bearish scenario will become increasingly likely. However, if the price of Dogecoin recovers and exceeds $0.23, the bearish hypothesis will no longer exist.