This week's US economic data preview: How will unemployment claims, ISM services PMI, and labor costs affect Bitcoin's trend?

Following the impact of last week's significant US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data, the United States will release a series of secondary but key economic indicators this week, including initial jobless claims, ISM Services PMI, productivity, and labor cost data. This data will shape the market's expectations regarding the Fed's policy path, which in turn will affect the price movement of Bitcoin and other Crypto Assets. Traders need to closely follow potential market fluctuation opportunities, especially as signs of weakness in the labor market or evidence of inflation stickiness could become catalysts for a Rebound in Crypto Assets.

[Initial Jobless Claims: A Key Verification of Labor Market Loosening]

• Release Time: Every Thursday (this time for the week of August 7)
• Market Expectations: A slight increase from the previous value of 218,000 to 221,000 (MarketWatch survey)
• Importance:
  • As a high-frequency supplement following the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), the continuously rising number of claims will reinforce expectations of a cooling in the US job market.
  • If the data exceeds expectations (greater than 221,000), it may be seen as a signal of economic weakness, increasing the Fed's probability of interest rate cuts, which is beneficial for risk assets like Bitcoin (the lower-than-expected NFP last week had intensified the decline of BTC).
• Analyst's Viewpoint: Economist Nick Timiraos pointed out that the current number of claims is still lower than the same period last year, but the continued unemployment claims data suggests that the labor market is "slightly looser" than a year ago.

【ISM Services PMI: A Health Check for the Economic Engine】

• Release Time: This Tuesday (August 5, July data)
• Market Expectations: Increased from 50.8% in June to 51.1% (above the threshold of 50%)
• Scenario Simulation:
  • > 51.1% (stronger than expected): Suggests that the expansion of the service industry is accelerating, which may weaken interest rate cut expectations, bearish for Bitcoin (concerns over liquidity tightening).
  • < 50% (contraction): Indicates a significant economic downturn, reinforcing expectations for easing, significantly beneficial for the crypto market.
  • Meets Expectations (~51.1%): Market reaction may be flat, focus shifts to unemployment claims data.
• Key Focus Points: New orders, employment sub-indexes, which directly reflect the demand heat in the service industry and labor demand, affecting the Fed's judgment on inflation-growth balance.

[Productivity and Unit Labor Costs: A Thermometer for Inflation Stickiness]

• Release Date: Thursday (August 7, Q2 Data)
• Market Expectations:

  • Productivity (QoQ): Rebounded from -1.5% in Q1 to +1.9%

    

  • Unit labor costs (QoQ): Significantly slowed from +6.6% in Q1 to +1.3%

• Market Impact Logic:
  • Ideal Scenario (Productivity ↑ + Labor Costs ↓): Strong Deflationary Signal, greatly enhances expectations for interest rate cuts, strongly bullish on Bitcoin.
  • Inflation concerns (productivity flat/↓ + labor costs ↑): Indicates the risk of a "wage-price spiral", supporting the Fed to maintain high interest rates, bearish for the crypto market.
  • Mild Scenario (Both Moving Mildly in the Same Direction): If productivity growth covers wage increases, it achieves real wage growth without inflation, and expectations for a soft landing in the economy warm up, still favoring Bitcoin (growth + no further tightening of liquidity).

[Fed Officials Speak: Bostic's Hawkish Stance Draws Attention]

• Spokesperson: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (
• Time: Thursday
• Background and Position: Bostic is a well-known hawk, supporting only one rate cut in 2024, emphasizing concerns over uncertainties such as tariffs.
• Market Impact: If his speech reaffirms anti-inflation determination or downplays the urgency of interest rate cuts (hawkish), it will suppress Bitcoin; if unexpectedly dovish signals are released (such as mentioning economic risks), it may boost the crypto market. His remarks may disrupt short-term expectations more directly than data.

【FedWatch Tool: High Probability of Rate Cut in September】 According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the market bets that the probability of the Fed lowering interest rates at the meeting on September 17 is as high as 80.7%. This week's data will continuously revise this expectation, becoming the main driving force behind Bitcoin fluctuation.

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(Fed interest rate cut probability | Source: CME FedWatch Tool)

Conclusion: This week's US economic data, while not a top-tier risk event, forms a key piece of the puzzle shaping September rate cut expectations. For crypto assets traders, it is important to closely monitor:

1. Unemployment benefits continue to rise or ISM services fall below the expansion-contraction line create trading opportunities for policy easing;
2. Unexpectedly high unit labor costs may trigger inflation concerns and selling pressure;
3. Bostic's hawkish remarks have an immediate dampening effect on market sentiment. Investors are advised to manage encryption asset risk exposure during data release windows and follow whether the sensitivity of Bitcoin to macro data continues to strengthen. Against the backdrop of an 80% probability of interest rate cuts, any data reinforcing the logic of easing could trigger Bitcoin to break through its recent range; conversely, caution should be taken against the risk of a pullback.