Ethereum (ETH) price prediction: Whales and institutions are strongly accumulating, can it recover the key level of $3800 this week?

On August 5, the price of Ethereum (ETH) briefly broke through the $3700 mark, reaching a high of $3730, with a daily rise of 5.7%, currently trading around $3650. This rise is accompanied by significant accumulation signals from whale addresses and institutional funds: over the past two days, 14 newly created whale wallets have accumulated more than 856,000 ETH (worth approximately $3.16 billion), while the strategic Ethereum reserve (SER) tracking institutional holdings has surged from $3 billion to $10.8 billion in six weeks. Despite strong capital inflows, ETH still needs to overcome the strong resistance zone between $3800 and $3900, and the current price is approaching the dense liquidation line of $3620-$3660, facing a critical test in the short term. This article deeply analyzes the rebound momentum of Ethereum's price, changes in institutional holdings, and the key factors that will determine whether it can return above $3800 this week.

Ethereum Strong Rebound, Whale and Institutional Funds Accelerate Inflow According to Gate data, Ethereum surged 5.7% on August 5th (Tuesday), reaching a high of $3,730 during the session, and stabilizing around $3,650 at the time of writing. The current price has rebounded 148% from the year's low. This increase comes a few weeks after Ethereum's unsuccessful attempt to break through $4,000 at the end of July (blocked near $3,900), when macro headwinds suppressed institutional risk appetite, and the total value locked (TVL) in the ecosystem significantly declined.

Whales are intensively accumulating by creating new addresses, releasing a strong bullish signal This week's rebound of Ethereum is closely related to the reaccumulation by whales and large entities. On-chain analysis platform Santiment shows that the number of wallets holding more than 10,000 ETH has significantly increased in the past few days, indicating that large holders are positioning for a potential pump. More strikingly, according to Lookonchain's on-chain data: On August 4th, two newly created addresses purchased nearly 40,000 ETH (approximately $142 million). The accumulation trend intensified on August 5th, with three other wallets cumulatively buying 63,837 ETH (about $236 million). Comprehensive statistics show that in just two days, 14 new Whale wallets have accumulated over 856,000 ETH, worth nearly $3.16 billion. Such a large-scale accumulation by newly created addresses typically indicates increased confidence among high-net-worth individuals or institutional investors. These buyers usually adopt a long-term strategy, positioning themselves before an anticipated price rise, and their movements are viewed by retail traders as an important bullish indicator.

Institutional Holdings Surge, SER Size Expands 260% in Six Weeks In addition to whales, institutional interest in Ethereum has also significantly increased. The allocation of assets focusing on ETH and structured products has clearly risen. The most notable progress is the rapid expansion of the Strategic Ethereum Reserve (SER) scale that tracks institutional holdings. In just six weeks, its Assets Under Management (AUM) surged from less than $3 billion to over $10.8 billion, with the total amount of ETH controlled rising from 1% in June to 2.45%. Nasdaq-listed gaming company SharpLink (one of the main holders of SER) added 18,680 ETH (approximately $6.663 million) to the reserve on August 4, highlighting that corporate treasuries continue to view ETH as a strategic long-term asset.

Short-term Challenge: Resistance Zone and Get Liquidated Risk Coexist Despite the strong inflow of whales and institutional funds, Ethereum currently lacks the momentum for a decisive breakthrough of the 3800-3900 USD key resistance zone. Although new whale wallets and treasury allocations have brought in new funds, these inflows have yet to translate into a broad market sentiment shift. Last week, Ethereum-focused ETFs experienced a total outflow of $129 million, indicating that mainstream investors remain cautious. Macroeconomic uncertainties (from trade war risks to concerns about the U.S. labor market) continue to suppress risk assets. In the absence of a clear narrative or short-term catalysts, the current rise is at risk of a rebound at any time. CoinGlass data reveals that the current price of Ethereum is dangerously approaching the 3620-3660 USD dense long position liquidation line. This area shows a high-intensity signal on the 24-hour liquidation heatmap, gathering a large number of high-leverage long positions. If ETH further declines, it may trigger a chain liquidation.

Downside Risks and Potential Rebound Pathways

• Short-term Risk: If Ethereum fails to hold the $3650 support, falling into the $3620-$3660 range may trigger Get Liquidated events, exacerbating selling pressure. This could push the price towards the $3580 or even $3540 levels near the secondary liquidity pool (where more vulnerable longs exist), which have a "liquidity magnet effect," causing the price to actively approach to "harvest" the open positions.
• Upward Opportunity: If the bulls successfully defend the current support and trigger a short-term rebound, Ethereum may target the $3730-3780 area, which is a dense liquidation zone for shorts.

Conclusion: The recovery battle at $3800 depends on key support and market sentiment Whether Ethereum can return above $3800 this week depends on two key factors: first, whether it can effectively avoid the spiral decline triggered by the liquidation zone between $3620 and $3660, and stabilize the support around $3650; second, whether the momentum of whale and institutional accumulation can translate into broader market confidence recovery and attract mainstream capital inflow (such as ETF inflows). Although some market observers are bullish based on technical analysis, targeting $4000, the shadow of macro uncertainty and the strong resistance above remain the main obstacles in the short term. Traders need to closely monitor the movements of on-chain whales, changes in the liquidation heatmap, and updates on institutional holdings data, as these will be the core indicators for predicting ETH's market trend this week.