Ethereum Reaches 4,700 USD: Breakthrough or Failure?

Ethereum is nearing its four-year ceiling as the price fluctuates around the 4,700 USD mark – a level that technical analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) calls the "deciding level for everything." This is an important resistance level, serving as the boundary between the potential for a strong breakout and the risk of a deep correction. The Key Position of Ethereum Kevin emphasized that ETH has now "caught up fundamentally with Bitcoin" but is still facing a significant resistance zone at 4,700 USD. Unlike temporary price milestones, this zone is bolstered by the peak of the previous cycle and the downward trend on the weekly RSI, which has hindered any bullish attempts since the beginning of 2024.

According to Kevin, two scenarios are awaiting ETH: Breakthrough Decision: ETH surpasses the resistance zone, closing weekly above 4,700 USD and breaking the bearish divergence on the RSI. This will usher in a real bullish phase, not only for ETH but also have a ripple effect across the entire altcoin market. Failure at the resistance level: ETH is rejected, maintaining a weak bullish pattern that has lasted for months and is at risk of entering a deep correction, especially when long-term buy orders must exit at unfavorable levels. Macroeconomic Factors Impact A recent macro shock came from the Producer Price Index (PPI) of the United States, with results higher than expected: PPI month-on-month increased by 0.9% (expected 0.2%)PPI year-on-year increased by 3.3% (expected 2.5%)Core PPI month-on-month increased by 0.9% (expected 0.2%) Kevin stated that the costs from tariffs are putting pressure on producers, explaining why the PPI has risen sharply while the CPI has not yet reflected this immediately. This volatility has caused the FedWatch tool to change rapidly, as the market continuously adjusts its expectations regarding interest rate cuts this year. In addition, the upcoming statements by Chairman Powell at Jackson Hole are seen as the next macro catalyst, which could shape the short-term upward or downward momentum of Ethereum. Technical Perspective Kevin emphasized that his technical checklist for Ethereum remains unchanged: Convincingly remove the horizontal supply zone of 4,700 USD. Break the weekly RSI downtrend, nullifying the bearish divergence that has existed since Q1 2024. He warned: "Resistance remains resistance until it is no longer." If it fails at this level, ETH risks a sharp decline. If successful, the entire altcoin market will benefit from a real price surge. Kevin also linked ETH to the broader market structure, through Total2 – the index representing ETH plus altcoins, which currently stands at 1.69 trillion USD, compared to the expected breakout level of 1.72 trillion USD. The delay in cash flow, along with the PPI shock, explains the temporary reversal of ETH.

Trading Strategy Regarding the strategy, Kevin emphasizes that the best buying position has passed, and he does not recommend buying at the current price levels. He advises investors: Monitor the weekly ETH chart. Pay attention to the 4,700 USD region and the RSI trend line. Confirm stable macro momentum before considering trading. He concluded: "Focus on these charts and nothing else." A single test, a price level, and a signal will determine the short-term future of Ethereum.