The Federal Reserve (FED) released the minutes of the March meeting: risks of US inflation and economic slowdown; the market expects two more rate cuts this year.

The minutes of the Fed's March meeting warned of the risk of high inflation and low growth, and revised down the expectation of interest rate cuts to 2. Fed officials: Fed will not be forced to cut tariffs, inflation indicators are at risk... Will a lower dollar be good for Bitcoin? (Background supplement: Trump: China immediately raised tariffs to 125%, Beijing retaliated with 84% tariffs, sanctioned 18 US companies) In the context of Trump's new round of tariff policy intensifying market uncertainty, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) held a monetary policy meeting (FOMC) on March 18-19, sending a clear warning that the US economy is facing the dual risks of high inflation and low growth at the same time. According to the latest minutes, most policymakers believe that the Fed may need to make a difficult choice between fighting inflation and supporting the economy in the future, and the market's expectations for the timing of interest rate cuts have also significantly adjusted. Double risks emerge: inflation heats up, employment weakens The minutes noted that almost all officials believe that "inflation risks are biased to the upside" and that "the job market is at risk of weakening." In an environment where inflation remains high and economic and employment momentum is weakening, it may be difficult for the Fed to respond by raising or cutting interest rates alone, reflecting the "trade-off dilemma" facing monetary policy. Some officials at the meeting bluntly said that if inflation becomes more stubborn and growth and employment prospects deteriorate simultaneously, the Fed will have to choose between "suppressing inflation" and "preventing a hard landing." Only two rate cuts forecast this year Although the market had expected the Fed to cut rates four times in 2025, the minutes showed that policymakers expected only two rate cuts this year, while lowering their expectations for economic growth. This not only reflects officials' concerns about the persistence of inflation, but also means that the Fed prefers to maintain a "longer high interest rate environment" to avoid inflation spiraling back out of control. According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors' expectations for the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in May have risen to 80.9%, while the probability of a rate cut has plummeted to 19.1% from 44.5% the previous day; Even in June, the market only expected a 61.7% chance of a rate cut of up to 1 yard (25 basis points). Tariff shock perpetuates market turmoil The meeting comes after the Trump administration unveiled preliminary tariff plans, which raised concerns about global supply chains and import prices, leading Fed officials to turn conservative. Some officials warned that a "sudden reprice" in financial markets could amplify any potential economic shock. In fact, after Trump announced reciprocal tariffs in early April, U.S. stocks tumbled sharply, but his subsequent announcement that he would postpone tariffs on friendly countries for 90 days temporarily relieved the market, and the main index rose more than 6% in a single day. However, repeated market shocks have also highlighted that the "policy uncertainty" mentioned in the Fed minutes has turned into a variable that dominates the economic outlook. Related reports Trump gave a 90-day tariff grace period" Bitcoin knocked 83,000 US dollars, and the fee soared by 18%, the largest one-day increase in history Trump announced the suspension of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days! Bitcoin broke through 81,000, U.S. stocks soared by more than 11%, and the U.S. bitcoin mining crash "actually made a profit?" Mining experts: Trump's tariffs will make mining machines in other countries super cheap (Federal Reserve released minutes of its March meeting: U.S. inflation and the risk of economic slowdown; The market expects two interest rate cuts this year" This article was first published in BlockTempo's "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media".