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AI Weekly Hotspot Report (04.04 - 04.11)
Table of Contents:
1. Market Trends
1.1. Market Sentiment
This week, the total market capitalization of digital currencies reached $3.579 trillion, a decrease of 7.9% compared to the previous week. The trading volume on exchanges also decreased, reaching $123.456 billion. The price of Bitcoin fell by 4%, hitting a low of $98,839.87. Overall market sentiment is sluggish, with a dominant trend of decline.
According to the Gate.io Fear and Greed Index, today's market sentiment is "Extreme Fear," with a Fear and Greed Index of 25. This indicates that the current market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, and investors have a rather negative outlook for the future.
1.2. Macroeconomic Impact
Recent data suggest that the pace of the global economic recovery has slowed and inflationary pressures persist. US March CPI rose 5.60% year-on-year, higher than expectations of 5.50%, and core CPI rose 5.60% year-on-year, higher than expectations of 5.50%. Eurozone preliminary CPI came in at 7.60% y/y in March, higher than expectations of 7.30%. Against the backdrop of persistently high inflation, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are likely to continue raising interest rates to curb inflation expectations. According to CME Group, there is a 95.40% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May.
The Producer Price Index ( PPI ) also remains high. The U.S. PPI rose 2.70% year-on-year in March, exceeding the expected 2.30%. The Eurozone's PPI rose 6.70% year-on-year in March, higher than the expected 6.30%. The continuous increase in upstream prices will further push up the Consumer Price Index.
The Purchasing Managers' Index ( PMI ) indicates a slowdown in economic activity. The U.S. manufacturing PMI for April was 46.30, down from the previous value of 46.90, marking the sixth consecutive month in the contraction zone. The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for April was 45.50, down from the previous value of 47.30. The services PMI performed relatively better, but still remains below the expansion zone.
Overall, the high inflation and slowing economic activity will continue to put pressure on the cryptocurrency market. Major central banks may continue to raise interest rates to combat inflation, leading to adjustments in risk assets.
1.3 Financial Calendar
Key focus areas:
U.S. March Retail Sales MoM (High Importance): Retail sales data reflects consumer spending and is an important indicator of economic growth. The expectation is 0.2%, and a figure lower than the previous value may raise concerns about the economic outlook.
Eurozone April Interest Rate Decision (High Importance): The European Central Bank will announce its latest interest rate decision, with the market expecting another rate hike. The interest rate decision will impact the Eurozone economy and financial market trends.
China's retail sales of consumer goods in March year-on-year (medium importance): reflects the state of domestic demand in China and is crucial for assessing economic growth prospects. Positive data will support the Renminbi and Chinese-related assets.
Japan's March Core CPI Year-on-Year (Medium Importance): Core inflation data is an important basis for the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Inflation higher than expected may increase the pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates.
Overall, the main economic data released this week is focused on inflation, retail sales, employment, etc., and investors will be closely watching the impact of these data on the monetary policy of various economies.
2. Capital Flow and Price Volatility Analysis
2.1. Price Volatility Analysis
The volatility of BTC this week is 3.21%. The price of BTC saw a significant drop at the beginning of the week, followed by a rebound after President Trump announced a suspension of tariffs.
Reasons for Price Fluctuations: The significant volatility in BTC prices is mainly influenced by global trade tensions. President Trump's decision to suspend tariffs alleviated market concerns, driving a rebound in BTC prices.
Trading Volume Impact: This week, BTC trading volume has significantly increased, indicating a rise in market activity. An increase in trading volume is often accompanied by heightened price volatility, reflecting changes in investor sentiment.
Market activity and price direction: An increase in trading volume indicates that market participants are divided on the future price movement of BTC. If the trading volume can be maintained at a high level, it will be beneficial for the price of BTC to rise. However, if there is a decline in trading volume, it may signal that the price will enter a consolidation phase.
2.2. Funding analysis
According to the latest money flow data, major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have recently shown net outflows. This suggests that investors are proceeding cautiously and may be temporarily withdrawing from risky assets due to concerns about the economic outlook and regulatory environment.
At the same time, some emerging cryptocurrency projects have attracted capital inflow. This may reflect that investors are seeking new investment opportunities, hoping to achieve higher returns by entering at an early stage. However, this type of investment also carries higher risks and requires careful assessment.
On the institutional side, the data shows that they are gradually increasing their crypto positions. This may be based on an optimistic judgment on the long-term prospects of cryptocurrencies, as well as uncertainty about traditional financial markets. Overall, however, institutional investor inflows remain small.
Retail investors are showing a more scattered state. Some investors are choosing to buy on dips, while others are withdrawing their positions due to a risk-averse sentiment. Overall, the trading activity of retail investors has decreased, reflecting a lack of confidence in the current market.
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2.3. Smart Money Analysis
The flow of smart money often predicts market trends. Based on the latest data, let's analyze the situation of different cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin (BTC) In recent weeks, the demand for Bitcoin from large investors has continued to rise. The wallet balances holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have increased at a rate above the average level for over 30 days. This typically indicates strong investor confidence, suggesting that the price of Bitcoin may rise.
Ethereum (ETH) The situation with Ethereum is different. Data shows that Ethereum's market capitalization growth lags far behind that of Bitcoin. This means that funds are flowing out of Ethereum, and investors lack confidence in its prospects. Therefore, Ethereum may face significant selling pressure.
Other Coins In addition to BTC and ETH, some small-cap coins have also attracted the attention of large funds. For example, there is a trader who shorted XRP, BTC, and ETH on the Hyperliquid platform and has now made a floating profit of $2.3 million. This suggests that part of the smart money is betting on the fall of these coins.
Overall, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin is good, and it is expected to face significant support in the future. In contrast, Ethereum and some small-cap cryptocurrencies may encounter considerable selling pressure. Investors need to closely monitor the flow of funds to grasp the bullish and bearish trends in the market.
3. Hot Topics
According to the provided data, the most frequently discussed hot topic in the past week is "Changes in Tariff Policies and Their Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market". Below are the relevant topic reports:
🔥🔥🔥 Trump's tariff drama ignites the cryptocurrency market 🚀🌕
Changes in tariff policies have triggered severe market fluctuations.
Recently, the changes in President Trump's tariff policy have triggered severe fluctuations in global markets. On April 2, Trump suddenly announced a new round of tariffs on all countries, leading to a significant drop in global stock markets, with the cryptocurrency market also not spared. Bitcoin fell by more than 10% in just one week, dipping below $74,000 at its lowest. Ethereum was hit even harder, briefly falling below the $1,500 mark, setting a new 12-month low.
According to the analysis by Grayscale (, Bitcoin's decline, when adjusted for risk, is relatively small at around 10%, while the S&P 500 index fell by 36%. This highlights the value of Bitcoin as a portfolio diversification tool.
However, Grayscale also warned that if tariff policies lead to stagflation ), where economic growth slows down and inflation intensifies (, traditional assets like stocks and bonds will face greater pressure, while scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold may benefit.
)# Trump's "temporary easing" triggers a rebound
Just as market sentiment plunged to rock bottom, Trump unexpectedly announced on April 9 that he would suspend tariffs on multiple countries for 90 days to renegotiate trade agreements. This "temporary easing" immediately triggered a rebound wave in global markets.
Bitcoin has rebounded from a low of $74,400 to above $82,000, rising more than 10% in a day. Ethereum and XRP also saw increases of over 10%. Analysts believe this reflects a recovery in investor optimism about the economic outlook.
However, Grayscale pointed out that if trade tensions persist, it may weaken the dominance of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves, thereby prompting central banks to accelerate reserve diversification and allocate some assets to decentralized assets such as Bitcoin.
The future prospects are uncertain.
Despite the recent rebound in the market, there remains significant uncertainty regarding the outlook. Grayscale believes that the US dollar may continue to weaken over the next 1-3 years, and inflationary pressures are expected to rise. In this environment, scarce commodity assets such as Bitcoin and gold may receive more attention and demand.
However, Grayscale also pointed out that the Trump administration's policy stance towards the cryptocurrency industry is generally positive, including the withdrawal of lawsuits and allowing institutions to provide cryptocurrency services, which helps to promote the development of the industry.
Overall, Trump's changes in tariff policy have triggered significant fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, but they also highlight the value of digital assets like Bitcoin in a diversified investment portfolio. Although there is uncertainty in the outlook, there are also positive factors, and whether Bitcoin can achieve wider adoption in the future remains to be seen.
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4. Major Events
The following are the Top 15 events that have had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market in the past seven days, listed in reverse chronological order:
#Trump Suspends Tariffs On April 10, 2025, President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of tariffs on multiple countries, triggering a significant market rebound. Major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP all experienced double-digit gains. Analysts believe this move alleviated trade tensions and boosted risk assets.
#Wayfinder Airdrop Attacked On April 10, 2025, the Kaito-Wayfinder airdrop was attacked by MEV, resulting in the theft of approximately 120 ETH. TokenTable, as a partner, has suspended the airdrop claiming feature. This incident highlights the security issues related to airdrops.
#dYdX Expansion Buyback Plan On April 10, 2025, the dYdX Foundation released a proposal to expand the buyback venue to over-the-counter buybacks to save on trading costs. The proposal will close on April 14.
#Block pays a $40 million fine On April 10, 2025, Block reached a $40 million settlement with New York regulators due to anti-money laundering compliance issues. The regulators pointed out that Block had multiple deficiencies in its anti-money laundering compliance.
#Grayscale Update Watchlist On April 11, 2025, Grayscale updated its asset watchlist, listing digital assets that are being evaluated for inclusion in future investment products. Some assets that have not yet been incorporated into its classification system are also included in the watchlist.
#Impact of the Department of Justice Directive on the Terra Case 2025-04-11 Prosecutors say the Justice Department's latest notice on cryptocurrency sanctions priorities will not change the criminal case filed against the Terra founder.
#Bitcoin Hash Buy Signal On April 11, 2025, the buy signal for Bitcoin's hash combined with low volatility has historically led to significant price increases. Analysts believe this may indicate the arrival of a bullish trend.
#Xapo Launches Bitcoin Collateral Loans On April 11, 2025, Xapo Bank launched a Bitcoin mortgage loan service, allowing members to obtain loans of up to $1 million by using Bitcoin as collateral.
#PolitiFi Token Soars 2025-04-11 After Trump suspended tariffs, the politically-themed token PolitiFi surged more than 6%, with a trading volume of more than $1.8 billion. Tokens such as DOGE and PATRIOT also saw big gains.
#Bitcoin Whales Accumulating On April 11, 2025, data shows that the wallet balances of large investors holding 1,000 to 10,000 bitcoins are rapidly increasing, which is seen as a bullish signal.
#XRP Next Steps On April 11, 2025, XRP is currently within a symmetrical triangle pattern, and analysts expect it may break through to $3.5 or drop to $1.8.
#Shiba Inu Coin Shibarium Breakthrough On April 11, 2025, the trading volume of Shiba Inu Coin's second-layer network Shibarium surpassed 1 billion transactions, marking strong adoption. However, the launch of the SHI stablecoin has been delayed due to regulatory issues.
#Bitcoin volatility decreases On April 11, 2025, Bitcoin enters a low volatility phase, and analysts believe this could signal an impending price surge.
#Grayscale Viewpoint: Tariffs Favor Bitcoin 2025-04-11 Grayscale released a report saying that tariffs could lead to a stagflationary environment, which is good for scarce assets such as Bitcoin.
#Bitcoin ETF Capital Outflow On April 11, 2025, the spot Bitcoin ETF experienced an outflow of $772 million, indicating that investors are preparing for inflation caused by tariffs.
5. Global Policies
The following is a summary and analysis of new political dynamics, economic policies, and regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry, as well as their impact on the industry and market, based on news from April 4 to April 11, 2025.
Trump Signs Resolution to Abolish IRS Crypto Tax Rules
On April 11, 2025, U.S. President Trump signed a resolution to repeal cryptocurrency tax rules. These rules were established by the Biden administration at the end of its term, requiring "custodial brokers" to collect and report user transaction data to the IRS, while also issuing 1099 forms to users for reporting non-employment income.
The signing of this resolution is seen as a positive development for the cryptocurrency industry, easing regulatory pressure and compliance costs for the sector. It clears obstacles for the development of decentralized finance )DeFi(, which is beneficial for attracting more investors and developers into the field.
Nasdaq Submits Avalanche Spot ETF Listing Application to the SEC
On April 11, 2025, Nasdaq submitted a rule change application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission )SEC(, planning to list VanEck's Avalanche )AVAX( spot ETF product on the exchange.
This application reflects the growing demand from institutional investors for cryptocurrency assets. If approved, it will provide investors with a more convenient and regulated way to invest in cryptocurrencies, helping to promote the development and mainstream adoption of the cryptocurrency market.
South Korea's Five Major Banks Call for Easing Restrictions on Collaboration with the Cryptocurrency Industry
On April 10, 2025, the five major commercial banks in South Korea and several regional banks met with ruling party lawmakers to call for a relaxation of the restrictions on the number of banks that can partner with cryptocurrency exchanges. Current regulations require each exchange to only cooperate with one bank.
This call reflects the growing interest and demand from traditional financial institutions in South Korea for the cryptocurrency industry. If restrictions are relaxed, it will benefit cryptocurrency exchanges in obtaining more banking support, promoting industry development.
European Regulators Warn That Cryptocurrencies May Threaten Financial Stability
On April 9, 2025, Natasha Cazenave, Executive Director of the European Securities and Markets Authority )ESMA(, stated that as the cryptocurrency industry grows and its links with traditional financial institutions deepen, a sharp decline in cryptocurrency prices in the future could have a ripple effect on the overall financial system.
This warning reflects regulators' concerns about the risks of cryptocurrencies. It may drive the EU to strengthen its regulation of cryptocurrencies to protect financial stability. However, excessive regulation could also stifle innovation and development in the cryptocurrency industry.
Summary
New Political Dynamics, Economic Policies, and Regulations:
These new dynamics and policies reflect the divergence in regulatory attitudes towards cryptocurrencies globally. On one hand, some countries and regions have relaxed regulations, creating a favorable environment for industry development; on the other hand, some regulatory agencies have warned about the risks associated with cryptocurrencies, which may lead to increased regulation. Overall, these dynamics will have a significant impact on the future development of the cryptocurrency industry.
6. Investment Analysis
) 6.1. Investment Recommendations
![]###https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b030f7d302-f1d9010fff-153d09-badf29.webp(
![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b030f7d302-7714d0e8a5-153d09-badf29.webp(
Please note that these suggestions are based solely on the current market analysis and are not financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrency carries risks, please invest cautiously.
) 6.2 Investment Strategy
Technical Analysis of Popular Tokens This Week
Bitcoin is expected to continue its upward trend supported by low volatility and buy signals from the hash rate. Ethereum has stabilized and rebounded around the $1,400 mark, and may follow in Bitcoin's footsteps going forward. Shiba Inu's future performance looks promising due to the strong growth of Shibarium and the advancement of innovative plans.
Trading Bot Strategy Analysis
The contract grid strategy performs exceptionally well in high-volatility markets, especially for popular cryptocurrencies like BTC and DOGE, with returns reaching several thousand percentage points. However, due to the use of high leverage, the risks are also significant.
The spot grid strategy yields stable returns with controllable risks, making it suitable for currencies such as GT and UNI5S, with returns ranging from 100% to 400%.
The spot martingale strategy has a good rate of return on mainstream currencies such as BTC and ETH, with a low risk of less than 100%.
The smart rebalancing strategy is highly flexible, automatically adjusting positions and cryptocurrencies based on market conditions, with moderate returns and slightly lower risk.
The combined indicator strategy requires manual analysis and operation, has a high yield, but involves a large workload and higher risks.
![]###https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b030f7d302-ec3ce942ff-153d09-badf29.webp(
Summary
This week's trading robot strategies show diversification, with both high-risk high-reward and low-risk low-reward options coexisting. Investors can choose suitable quantitative strategy combinations based on their own risk preferences.
) 6.3. Financial Management Products
Yubi Bao
Yubi Treasure helps to match users with idle assets and those in need of loans. After users subscribe to Yubi Treasure, the system will determine whether the loan is successful and the interest rate for that hour based on the user's set lending rate and actual loan demand at each whole hour. If the loan is successful, users can earn interest for that hour.
Yubi Treasure supports users to customize interest rates. Users can set the minimum lending rate when subscribing, and the earnings will be calculated based on the determined rate after the lending is successfully judged. Yubi Treasure supports on-demand deposits and withdrawals, allowing subscriptions and redemptions 24 hours a day.
The total amount of USDT in Yubi Treasure is 350,193,997.59, with an estimated annual yield of 16.65% + 8.87%.
![]###https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b030f7d302-1215d7565e-153d09-badf29.webp(
Wealth Management Treasure
The Wealth Management Treasure is a one-stop comprehensive financial service center established by Gate.io, including current, fixed-term, and all other financial plans, providing users with hundreds of financial products in multiple types of digital currencies.
![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b030f7d302-fd3aa88ec7-153d09-badf29.webp(
Structured Finance
Gate.io structured financial management is a new type of financial product based on a combination of fixed income and financial derivatives such as options. Generally, the settlement yield level is determined by comparing the price performance of the underlying asset during the investment period with the specified reference price, and it can be divided into two types: principal-protected and aggressive.
![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b030f7d302-eb5774443a-153d09-badf29.webp(
4. Market Interest Rate
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Note:
Disclaimer: All content contained in this document is based on publicly available information and is for reference only. Gate.io assumes no responsibility for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the content of this document.
) 6.4. Technical Analysis
Bollinger Bands Trading Strategy
Bollinger Bands are a commonly used technical indicator that identifies potential overbought or oversold conditions through the standard deviation of prices. According to the Bollinger Band trading strategy, when the ETH price approaches or breaks above the upper band, a sell action is taken with a position size of 20%; when the ETH price approaches or breaks below the lower band, a buy action is taken with a position size of 20%. The initial capital is 100,000.00 USDT.
Backtest Results
Backtesting the historical data of ETH based on this trading strategy, the backtesting period is from January 1, 2023, to March 31, 2025. The backtesting results are as follows:
Data Analysis
Advantages
Disadvantages
Overall, the Bollinger Bands trading strategy performed well during the backtesting period, but there are still some areas that need improvement. Investors need to combine it with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis during actual operations, and make appropriate adjustments based on their own risk preferences.