Ray Dalio: A Perfect Storm is Brewing as Currency & World Order Collapse Reach a Critical Point, Driven by the Five Major Forces of Human History.

Ray Dario, founder of Bridgewater Fund, the largest hedge fund in the United States, (Ray Dalio) recently gave an interview, saying that the current global economy is at a critical turning point, and it is necessary to be careful to guard against a crisis more serious than recession, and called on the US government to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP as soon as possible. (Synopsis: Gold hits another all-time high!) Market "capital hedge" Trump global tariff war, oil and US debt volatility intensified) (Background supplement: Trump declared a "national emergency" tariffs washed Asian stocks in blood, the Nikkei index plunged 3%, South Korea held an emergency meeting: In an interview with Meet the Press this week, Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Fund, made it clear that the current global financial, political, and international order is at the threshold of historic transformation, gradually shifting from the US-led multilateral world system to a unilateral system dominated by competition and disputes. Five forces driving human history Five major drivers of human history: the financial debt cycle, the divide between rich and poor within countries, political divisions, international power shifts, natural disasters and diseases, and changes in science and technology, are now intertwined to make the existing global order more fragile than ever. He said that the tariff issues arising from the current Sino-US trade frictions are not simple trade disputes, but one of the characteristics of global economic imbalances and international political changes. Dalio pointed out that if the current trade policy continues to be chaotic and not properly mediated, it will eventually lead to a significant reduction in the productivity of the global economy, which may lead to broader and violent economic turmoil around the world. U.S. debt crisis is imminent, reducing debt deficit is key Speaking of the U.S. domestic economy, Dalio specifically warned the U.S. government that the current budget deficit is close to getting out of control. He pointed out that the current US budget deficit is about 7% of GDP, and if it can be adjusted to a more stable level of 3% in time, it will help avoid the debt crisis from worsening. However, if the government fails to reach a bipartisan consensus and take concrete action on this issue, the potential debt problem could trigger an economic collapse similar to the global financial crisis of 2008 or worse. He suggested that the U.S. Congress should make an immediate commitment to rein in the budget deficit and help stabilize the U.S. economy from further wild market volatility through cross-party cooperation. He said that in the past, between 1991 and 1998, the United States effectively reduced the deficit, proving that cross-party cooperation is feasible and necessary. Tariff policy continues to be chaotic, short-term volatility in global markets intensifies When asked about the tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration, Dalio admitted that the current implementation of the policy is extremely chaotic and destructive, and may even exacerbate global economic uncertainty. This is like "throwing a huge stone at the global production system", which not only increases the cost of products, but also weakens the efficiency of global economic development. Regarding the future trend of the global economy, Dalio added that if these tariffs and trade frictions are not cleverly resolved, the global economy is very likely to fall into recession, and at this stage, the US economy is very close to the brink of recession, and the slightest carelessness may turn into a more severe crisis, or even into a major catastrophic consequence such as the Great Depression. Warn of international conflict and financial security risks, urge global coordination to respond Dalio stressed that people must be aware that the current financial risks go far beyond the recession, and he warned in particular that uncertainty about the value of the dollar could lead to fatal shocks to global asset holders. He said that in today's environment, the financial system and monetary structure are no longer as stable and reliable as before, and the carrying capacity of US dollar debt has weakened significantly. Dalio further pointed out that every collapse of the monetary order in history has been accompanied by violent internal turmoil and serious international conflicts. He even vaguely mentioned the risk of international conflicts in the future, including the possibility of military confrontation, so he called on all countries to avoid further deterioration of the situation through careful diplomatic consultations and in-depth cooperation on economic control issues. His recent book, How Countries Go (How Broke), "How Nations Go Broke," will be available in June and may provide more complete and detailed analysis and responses, but there is currently no Chinese version, so interested readers can follow along. 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