Bitcoin could reach $138K in the next 3 months as macro opportunities support price increase.

Bitcoin is facing an "unprecedented" correlation with the US dollar as new research indicates a BTC price floor of $75,000.

In a latest analysis on April 18, economist Timothy Peterson calculated that BTC could rise to 138,000 dollars in the next three months.

The probability of Bitcoin price leaning towards the bulls

Bitcoin is navigating through extremely unusual macroeconomic conditions due to the ongoing trade war with America, but history still provides clues about the next direction of BTC prices.

For Peterson, the effective yield of high-yield bonds in America is currently above 8% – this is the key factor.

"This has happened 38 times since 2010 (monthly data). After 3 months: Bitcoin price increased 71% of the time. The median increase is +31%. If it decreases, the worst loss is -16%", he summarized.

The effective yield of high-yield bonds in America | Source: Timothy PetersonWith BTC's performance leaning heavily towards bullishness, Peterson has brought hope to those waiting for Bitcoin to reach ATH again since January.

"This has the potential to put the Bitcoin price in the range of $75,000 to $138,000 in the next 90 days."

To reach that maximum level, Bitcoin will need to increase by 62% during this period.

As reported, Peterson is a frequent forecaster of BTC prices in 2025, where one of his proprietary tools – Lowest Price Forward (lowest futures price) – has provided a 95% probability that the floor price of BTC will be $69,000 in March.

The correlation between Bitcoin and the DXY index will turn negative

Regarding the sharp decline of the US dollar index (DXY) due to US tariff policies, Peterson predicts that the unusual positive correlation between DXY and BTC will eventually end.

"The current correlation level between BTC and USD is unprecedented. This relationship is not causal but reflects the underlying conditions affecting both. Historically, it has often been inversely related, but this relationship reversed in 2024 when both assets reacted to macroeconomic stress factors such as: tightening liquidity, high real interest rates, and global risk aversion sentiment. BTC will decouple from this trend and appreciate when real yields decrease and liquidity returns," he explained.

BTC against the US dollar index (DXY) | Source: Timothy PetersonDXY continues to maintain below the important threshold of 100 on April 18, according to data from TradingView, reflecting some of the lowest levels in the past three years.

Previously, other analyses still see the potential for Bitcoin to benefit directly from the weakening of the dollar in a manner similar to the early stages of the bull run in 2023.

Dollar Index Chart Mỹ (DXY) 1 week | Source: TradingViewDisclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should do thorough research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions

Dinh Dinh