On-chain Data Academy (10): Market Barometer RUPL (II) - Strongest Top Signal & Detailed Analysis of Historical Cycle Tops

This article is the 10th article in the On-Chain Data Academy series, with a total of 10 articles. Take you step by step to understand on-chain data analysis, welcome interested readers to follow this series of articles. (Synopsis: On-Chain Data Academy (9): Market Barometer RUPL(I) - Data Introduction Bottom Reading Application ) (Background Supplement: On-Chain Data Academy (1): Do you know what is the average cost of BTC in the whole market? TLDR RUPL series will be divided into 2 articles, this is the second This article will share how to analyze the top of the market by observing the movement of RUP and price at the same time Continued, this article will analyze each round of cyclical tops in history in the above method From the perspective of RUP, share the market stage at the time of writing RUPL Simple Review RUPL is a relatively unrealized profit and loss, which can be broken down into RUP and RUL, representing relative unrealized profits and relative unrealized losses, respectively. The main use of this data is to indicate the current overall market profit and loss. For a detailed description of the RUPL indicator, please refer to the previous post. In this article, I will share a powerful use of RUPL on top escape, in which we only need to use RUP. "When there is a divergence between the RUP movement and the BTC price action, a high probability means the appearance of a top" When the BTC price makes a higher high, but the RUP makes a lower high, the divergence is established. The logic is this: it stands to reason that when the price makes higher highs, RUP should follow suit. However, if the above divergence occurs (the price is higher and the market is less profitable), the only possibility is that "a large number of holders of low-cost chips have begun to sell chips and distribute them." Because in the unrealized profits, the largest proportion must be low-cost chips, once they exit the market first, even if the price hits a new high in the future, because they have already left the market (a large number of unrealized profits converted into realized profits), it is likely that RUP will fail to make a new high with the price! However, it is still necessary to remind here that for the analysis and interpretation of the market stage, a more accurate approach should be to observe it in combination with other on-chain indicators, so as to avoid falling into the trap of measuring the sea to the greatest extent. Detailed analysis of historical cyclical tops After understanding the logic of RUP divergence, if it does not enter the disk for verification, it is only on paper. Therefore, in this paragraph, I will take this logic with you to review the great top of the historical cycle of BTC. Top of the bull market in 2013 As shown above, the green line is RUP and the black line is BTC price. At the time of the top, there was a "three-stage divergence" between the price and the RUP. As the price made two higher highs in a row, the corresponding RUP made lower highs in a row, fully satisfying the RUP divergence conditions we described in the previous paragraph. The top of the bull market in 2017 As shown in the figure, in the top of 2017, there was also a RUP divergence signal. In this top, there was a RUP divergence after the price reached the highest price at the time; Later, when the subsequent price struggled and rebounded, there was a second RUP divergence, which was enough to escape. Two tops in 2021 As shown in the figure, we all know that a relatively special "double-top structure" appeared in 2021, and here we will analyze the two tops separately. The first is the first top, which is similar to 2013 with a "three-stage divergence"; Then there is the second top, again, another RUP divergence in the top period. Above, the top of the three historical cycles that have appeared so far, without exception, have not escaped the clutches of RUP divergence! Of course, this does not mean that every time a top occurs, there will necessarily be an RUP divergence, but as far as the current data is concerned, every time is no exception. So, what about this cycle ...? Top Analysis for 2025 Without further ado, let's go straight to the chart: (This figure is the data at the time of writing, it was 2025 / 01 / 07) At the time of writing, the price has already shown the first RUP divergence signal of the current cycle, which is a warning sign that cannot be ignored. Subsequently, on January 20, 2025, RUP again showed a three-stage divergence from the first top of 2013 and 2021, and the BTC closing price on that day was about 106,000. And I also posted a post on X on the same day, reminding you of the risk that the top of the market has appeared. Has the top been confirmed so far? I can't tell, but I did liquidate BTC at an average price of 103k. The top is a process, and as for whether my judgment is correct, it still needs time to prove, Let's see. Conclusion The above is all the content of the on-chain data academy (ten), readers who are interested in learning more in-depth on-chain data analysis, remember to follow this series of articles! If you want to see more on-chain data analysis and teaching content, please follow my Twitter (X) account! Hope this article helps you, thanks for reading. Related stories On-chain data academy (6): A new BTC magic pricing methodology with ARK participation (I) On-chain data academy (7): A new BTC magic pricing methodology with ARK participation (II) On-chain data academy (8): A new BTC magic pricing methodology with ARK participation! (III) "On-Chain Data Academy (10): Market Barometer RUPL(II) - Strongest Top Signal & Historical Cycle Top Detailed Analysis" This article was first published in BlockTempo's "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media".