Bitcoin targets $95,000 as trade war cools — Are BTC futures in agreement?

Bitcoin has surged to its highest level in the past 45 days, nearly reaching 94,000 USD this morning (23/4). This bullish trend occurs simultaneously with gold reaching a new record high, reflecting investors' concerns about the risk of economic recession amid escalating global trade tensions.

The market flow is changing, but is the data sufficient to support a Bitcoin bullish run above the 95,000 USD mark?

! Bitcoin targets $95,000 as trade war cools downAnnualized premium for 2-month Bitcoin futures | Source: Laevitas.chIn stable markets, Bitcoin's futures premium typically ranges from 5% to 10% to compensate for the extended settlement period. Currently, the annual premium is 6%, which is not considered particularly optimistic, even though the BTC price increased by $6,840 from April 20 to 22. Some analysts say this is a sign that Bitcoin is starting to decouple from the stock market.

Traders' concerns may arise around the 90,000 USD level of BTC

Investor skepticism partly stems from Bitcoin's continuous inability to maintain levels above 90,000 USD at the beginning of March. For example, Bitcoin tested the 95,000 USD threshold on March 3, but subsequently dropped to 81,464 USD the following day. This unstable performance since the peak of 109,346 USD on January 20 has eroded the confidence of optimistic investors, especially as gold continues to set new records during the same period.

! Bitcoin targets $95,000 as trade war cools downS&P 500 futures (trái) against Bitcoin/USD | Source: TradingView Currently, Bitcoin is trading 16% below its all-time high, which equates to a 14.5% decline in the S&P 500. This suggests that the era of excessive risk-taking may be over. Notably, even at its lowest end below $75,000, Bitcoin's 32 percent drop is less severe than what Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (META), and Tesla (TSLA) have experienced.

The statements from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on April 22 helped ease investor concerns. According to Bloomberg, Bessent described the current tariff stalemate with China as "unsustainable," indicating that the likelihood of de-escalation is increasing. In contrast, U.S. President Donald Trump took to social media to criticize that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is hindering economic growth by not lowering interest rates.

The profit of Bitcoin contrasts with the trend of investors shifting to government bonds

Regardless of the reasons behind the weak economic growth in the United States, demand for U.S. short-term Treasury bonds has increased, as evidenced by the yield on 2-year bonds falling to 3.81% from 4.04% a month ago. Essentially, investors are accepting lower returns in exchange for the safety of government bonds. In this context, the bullish 6.3% increase of Bitcoin over the past 30 days stands out as a notable point.

To determine whether the recent gains have affected the sentiment of professional traders, it is necessary to examine the BTC options market. If traders expect a correction, the put options (put option) typically trade at higher premiums, causing the 25% delta skew index to rise above 6%. Conversely, bullish sentiment pushes the index below -6%.

30-day Bitcoin options (put-call) on Deribit | Source: Laevitas.chCurrently, the Bitcoin options market shows limited enthusiasm after surging to $93,000, with the 25% delta skew at -2%, remaining within neutral territory. According to this indicator, the final phase of bullish sentiment occurred on January 30, when Bitcoin traded near $105,000. Therefore, there is no clear evidence that large investors or market makers are anticipating a sustained bullish move above $95,000.

Despite some weak macroeconomic data, market participants are predicting a relatively strong first-quarter earnings reporting season. FactSet reports that companies in the "Magnificent 7" group are expected to achieve earnings growth of 14.8% for the first quarter compared to the previous year.

While Bitcoin still has the chance to return to the level of 95,000 USD or higher, many traders seem to be waiting for further developments in the US-China trade war before making additional bullish bets.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should do their own research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

Mr. Giáo