One Year After Bitcoin Halving: Why Is This Round's Performance So Different? Who Is Rewriting the Bitcoin Cycle Law?

BTC may be entering a new era characterized no longer by parabolic peaks, but by incremental growth that is more institutionally driven. (Synopsis: Trump shouted: will sharply reduce tariffs on China, will not fire Powell, bitcoin knocks 94,000 U.S. stocks rise) (Background supplement: in-depth analysis" Bitcoin's breakthrough of 93,000 magnesium is the starting point of the reversal, or the secondary distribution of the downward escape wave? It's been a year since BTC was last halved, and the cycle is taking on a very different pattern. Unlike previous cycles of explosive gains after the halving, BTC is more modest this one, up only 31%, compared to a whopping 436% in the same time period in the previous cycle. At the same time, long-term holder indicators such as the MVRV ratio show a sharp decline in unrealized profits, indicating that the market is maturing and the upside is being compressed. Taken together, these changes suggest that BTC may be entering a new era characterized by no longer parabolic peaks, but more institutionally driven incremental growth. One year after the BTC halving: a cycle like no other The development of this BTC cycle is markedly different from previous cycles, which may indicate a shift in the way the market reacts to halving events. In the early stages of the cycle (especially from 2012 to 2016, and from 2016 to 2020), BTC tends to see strong gains during this period. The period after the halving is usually accompanied by strong upward momentum and parabolic price movements, mainly thanks to the enthusiasm and speculative demand of retail investors. The current cycle, however, has taken a different path. Instead of accelerating after the halving, prices began to soar earlier as early as October and December 2024, followed by consolidation in January 2025 and a pullback in late February. This upfront rally behaves very differently from historical patterns, in which the halving has often acted as a catalyst for a sharp rise. There are several factors contributing to this shift. BTC is no longer just a speculative asset driven by retail investors, it is increasingly seen as a full-fledged financial instrument. Increasing participation by institutional investors, combined with macroeconomic pressures and changes in market structure, has led to more cautious and complex market responses. BTC cycle comparison. Source: Bitcoin Cycles Comparison Another clear sign of this evolution is that the intensity of each cycle is waning. As BTC's market cap has grown, the explosive gains of the early years have become increasingly difficult to replicate. For example, in the 2020-2024 cycle, BTC rose 436% a year after the halving. In contrast, the current cycle's gain of just 31% over the same time period is much more modest. This shift could mean that BTC is entering a new chapter, characterized by reduced volatility and more stable long-term growth. The halving may no longer be the main driver, and other factors such as interest rates, liquidity and institutional funding are playing a bigger role. The rules of the game are changing, and so is BTC. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that previous cycles have also had phases of consolidation and pullback before resuming the uptrend. While this stage may feel slower or less stimulating, it may still represent a healthy correction ahead of the next rally. That said, it's still possible that the cycle will continue to deviate from historical patterns. Instead of a dramatic top bubble burst, it may present a more durable, structurally solid uptrend that is driven more by fundamentals than hype. Long-term holder MVRV ratio reveals BTC mature market The market capitalization to MVRV ratio of long-term holders (LTH) has been a reliable measure of unrealized profits. It shows the profits made by long-term investors before they start selling. But over time, that number is declining. In the cycle from 2016 to 2020, the LTH MVRV ratio peaked at 35.8, indicating that huge book profits and a clear top are forming. By the 2020-2024 cycle, this peak dropped sharply to 12.2, although the BTC price hit an all-time high at that time. In this period, the highest value of the LTH MVRV ratio to date is only 4.35, which is a huge decrease. This suggests that long-term holders are earning much less than in previous cycles, despite a significant increase in the price of BTC. The trend is clear: the multiple of earnings is falling every cycle. BTC's explosive upside is being compressed and the market is maturing. Now, in this cycle, the highest reading for the LTH MVRV ratio to date is 4.35. This significant drop suggests that long-term holders have received much lower yield multiples compared to previous cycles, even with a significant increase in the price of BTC. This pattern points to the conclusion that BTC's upside is being compressed. BTC long-term holder MVRV. Source: Glassnode This is no accident. As the market matures, explosive gains are naturally harder to obtain. The era of extreme, cycle-driven profit multiples may be fading and replaced by more moderate or steady growth. The growing size of the market means that exponentially more capital is needed to significantly drive prices up. However, this does not guarantee that the cycle has peaked. Previous cycles have typically included a long period of consolidation or small pullbacks before reaching new highs. As institutional investors play an increasingly important role, the accumulation phase is likely to last longer. Therefore, the sell-off in peak profits may not be as abrupt as in earlier cycles. However, if the trend of peak decline in MVRV ratios continues, this could reinforce the view that BTC is moving from crazy, cyclical surges to a more modest but structured growth model. The sharpest gains may have passed, especially for investors who entered the market late in the cycle. Related stories Bitcoin's four-year cycle law fails? What happened to the crypto market in the past 2 years Ethereum hell mode: ETH/BTC exchange rate fell to the lowest in 5 years, and for the first time it could not beat Bitcoin in the halving cycle On-Chain Data Academy (10): Market Barometer RUPL(II) - Strongest Top Signal & Historical Cycle Top Detailed Analysis One year after Bitcoin halving: why is this round not different? Who is rewriting the laws of the Bitcoin cycle" This article was first published in BlockTempo's "Dynamic Trends - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media".