Online Private Sharing Session on April 23: Tsinghua and Peking University special guest lecturer Gary Yang will chat with you about digital thinking and the future of Web3.

On April 23, 2025, a high-end and sincere private thought exchange meeting will be held online at the intersection of night and dawn, initiated by the CICADA team. It will feature Gary, a special lecturer from Tsinghua and Peking University and a senior figure in the Web3 field (known as Yang Ge in Web2), as the main speaker. The event gathers new and old friends from both hemispheres, focusing on the latest insights into digital native thinking, AI, and the future world. Gary gladly accepted the invitation before heading to Dubai, sharing his observations and thoughts representing the Chinese-speaking community and friends from multiple countries in AI and offline activities related to earthquakes. The private meeting will not be recorded, specially designed to create a flash dialogue opportunity for thinkers and doers, encouraging an atmosphere of open and inclusive communication. The second half will open for free discussion, broadening thinking boundaries through the collision of ideas, helping participants to continuously evolve and co-create the future world.

Speaker Introduction: Gary's Diverse Perspective

Gary has 15 years of active market experience, spanning traditional VC and Web3 investments. In the early days, he invested in more than 120 projects at Xinghan Capital; After entering Web3, he founded Eureka Fund and invested in 15 funds (such as Multi Mine, LSG) and a number of Crypto projects (Delisham AGI, Sonic, Mirror World, Soft Protocol, etc.), accumulating rich experience. He admits that the investment logic of Web3 is completely different from Web2, involving unique challenges such as law, valuation, and return cycle, and the investment results are mixed. From 2023 onwards, Gary will turn to Web3 asset management, optimize his approach, and continue to explore market opportunities. Recently, he met with V God and Blanche in Johor Bahru, Malaysia, bringing insights into global trends, crypto market issues and opportunities for the next stage.

Core sharing content

Macroeconomic trends and the intersection of Kondratiev waves

Gary shares a classic diagram of the past five years, analyzing the intersection of the Compo cycle (50 years) and the electrically driven cycle (200 years). Comparing the global environment from 1870 to 1920 and 2020 to 2030, he believes that the current situation is at the junction of the Compo cycle, characterized by involution, monopoly, and intensified contradictions, similar to 1920-1930. In the past 50 years, driven by the computer Internet, the current cycle is dominated by digitalization and AI, and Crypto (protocol, smart contract) has brought about changes in production relations. Global chaos (wars, plagues) marks the beginning of a new cycle, with the Thucydides Trap (great power confrontation) and the triple kill of bonds and stocks (bonds, equities, currencies and non-high-quality assets), and the surge in gold reflects safe-haven demand.

Social Circulation and Liberalism Scarcity

Quoting from his 2020 book The Gears of Society, Gary proposes that the historical cycle goes through four stages: theorism, liberalism, pragmatism, and collectivism. At present, the world is transitioning from the end of pragmatism (involution) to collectivist confrontation, and liberalism (such as Silicon Valley in the Jobs era) is extremely scarce. He shared his interactions with V God and Blanche in Johor Bahru, Malaysia, calling it a liberal utopia, similar to Silicon Valley in the 70s. After visiting 50 countries, Gary believes that a truly liberal environment is rare, and that involution may lead to national confrontation, and then moves into theorism and promotes innovation.

China's Economy: Marketization Changes and Challenges

Gary analyzes the transition of China's economy from a planned economy to a semi-market economy over the past 30 years. The seeds of marketization emerged after Pelosi's visit to China in 1992, the abolition of grain coupons in 1994, and the rise of investment banks and PE/VC development. After 2017, government intervention increased, marketization shrank (McKinnon effect), and state-owned enterprises grew stronger. He shares lessons from the non-market operation of local industrial funds and the failures in agricultural investment, believing that China's economic strength is overestimated, data is distorted, and there needs to be an objective assessment of its potential in areas such as chips and AI.

Crypto Market: End of the First Curve and Outlook for the Second Curve

Gary divides the Crypto market into three phases: Blockchain (technology), Cryptocurrency (finance), and Web3 (industry), reviewing the period from 2016 to 2024, from infrastructure to wealth effect to application exploration. The end of the first curve in 2024 is marked by the event that Milecher's pool does not issue coins and Trump's coin issuance credit is overdrawn. Trump, as a KOL president, validates the recognition of Crypto by the country, but ends the consensus cutting mode. Among the six major directions in 2024 (ETF, BTC Fi, DeFi, AI, ZK, Meme), ETF increases recognition but decreases liquidity, while Meme is for short-term speculation. Gary emphasizes that the market needs to shift from zero-sum games to positive-sum games, with Real Yield and RWA (real assets) being the key to the second curve.

Web3 Investment Logic and the Demise of VC

Gary compares the investment logic of Web2 (expected: technology - product - financing) with Web3 (unexpected: liquidity - product). Many Web3 projects run away after building consensus, with only 1% persisting in their efforts, leading to a crisis of trust among VCs. Traditional VC agreements (like SAFE) offer insufficient protection, and the cost of default is low, resulting in nearly total destruction of VCs by early 2025. Exchanges restrict project parties from cutting retail investors, and VCs, along with market makers (like Wintermute), are withdrawing. Gary advocates for Web3 to be supported by real assets and emphasizes long-term asset management rather than short-term speculation.

Second Curve: The Rise of RWA and Real Yields

Gary proposed that the second curve of Crypto focuses on RWA and Real Yield, sharing that Nigeria has the highest proportion of Crypto payments globally (over 1%) and the case of Dunhuang Net's USDT settlement rising from 5/1,000 to 15%, proving the exponential growth of consumer finance and supply chain finance. In the previous cycle, RWA (such as real estate and vineyards) were mostly financing gimmicks, but the 2025 Hong Kong Carnival shows the mainstreaming of RWA. Gary introduced the Zika project, which avoids double kills through one-sided liquidity (LT/RT mechanism). The underlying asset (mining machines) has been successfully tested, receiving investments from SBG and SNZ, emphasizing professional selection and on-chain and off-chain audits to create a "Web3 version of Blackstone."

Global financial indicators and Bitcoin's hedging properties

Gary analyzes the changes in financial indicators after Trump's election victory: Gold rose from 2600 to 3500 points, Bitcoin rebounded from 76000 to 95000, demonstrating for the first time the safe-haven property of digital gold, with an increased negative correlation with traditional assets. In 2025-2026, Bitcoin's safe-haven properties may be strengthened due to pressure from U.S. Treasuries and declining dollar credit. Gary predicts that global instability will give rise to black swan events, with the conflict between decentralized ideas and traditional finance as the main contradiction, and the Crypto payment and application market is expected to break through 10 trillion.

Web3 Asset Management and Real Yield Challenges

Gary pointed out that Web3 asset management needs support from real assets and professional management, criticizing LSD projects (such as Lido) for locking up liquidity and lacking financial ethics. Zika combines real assets (mining machines, PayFi, quantitative funds) through the LT/RT mechanism to avoid the death spiral and build a sustainable ecosystem. Asset screening, on-chain and off-chain audits, and compliance (such as licenses in Hong Kong and Singapore) are at the core, summarizing the eight directions of Real Yield: high returns, low risk, high low float index, compliance, etc.

Open mic discussion: Audience questions and Gary's responses

Zoey: The potential of PayFi and the Zika user base

PayFi's Potential and Notable Companies: Zoey inquires about PayFi and potential companies in consumer finance and supply chain finance. Gary points out that large institutions are limited by centralized KYC, while small and medium-sized companies in Thailand, Dubai, and Singapore (OTC, traditional payment, Tron node transformation) are active but have weak brands, and new projects may emerge in 2025. In supply chain finance, the Middle East settles millions of dollars in transactions using USDT, and NFT attempts to replace letters of credit, developing rapidly.

Zika user group: Zoey asked about Zika's target audience. Gary stated that Zika is aimed at ToB (institutions) and ToC (retail investors), primarily targeting DeFi players and semi-professional investors, with a semi-private placement model (team subscription of 80-90%, market open to 20-30%), supported by institutions such as FBG and SNZ, fair launch ensures fairness, gradually guiding retail investors to participate with small amounts.

Anonymous Guest: The Evolution of Centralized Exchanges

Question: Will the evolution direction of centralized exchanges (the top 7 giants in position 1) be replaced by emerging token mechanisms?

Answer: Gary believes that centralized and decentralized exchanges can develop in parallel, as the position of centralized exchanges weakens but does not disappear due to KYC and trust crises. DEXs (such as Hyper Liquid, Pancake, Dodo) gradually evolve through the "front store and back stage" model (centralized front-end traffic, back-end DEX technology) and in the short term cannot replace centralized exchanges due to liquidity and technical limitations.

Chenxi: Zika Asset Screening and Competitive Advantage

Asset screening criteria: Chenxi asks about Zika's screening standards. Gary emphasizes high returns (20% annualized), high Sharpe ratio (2.5-3), low risk, and that real assets (such as mining machines, PayFi) require risk control (such as mezzanine funds, third-party guarantees). The screening is strict, similar to hedge funds "picking one out of tens of miles," taking Two Sigma and Signal Plus assets as examples.

Attracting Quality Assets: Zika attracts attention in the scarce Real Yield market by leveraging semi-decentralized decision-making (initially through the Zcash Foundation, later through VE voting), Web2 financial engineering (such as packaging Singapore real estate projects), and introducing quality assets (like Optimus), creating a "Web3 Asset Management Platform" with professionalism and risk control.

Anonymous Guest: Zika Community Building and Promotion

Question: What are Zika's Web3 community building and promotional plans?

Answer: Gary stated that the promotional efforts would slow down in the second quarter of 2025, but the momentum is good, with strong support from Chinese KOLs and DAOs (such as Huahua and Dapiao) as well as the North American community. Communication between Johor Bahru in Malaysia and Blanch has gained support from the media and DAOs. Zika emphasizes long-term community building and is not worried about short-term pressure.

Anonymous Guest: Retail Investors Participating in Zika Timing and Valuation

Question: How do retail investors participate in the Zika phase and what is the valuation high or low?

Answer: Gary stated that Zika ensures equal participation for retail and institutional investors through fair launch, opening leverage on the first day (in cooperation with Meta Alpha), with no valuation differences, allowing retail investors to not worry about high valuations, fair and transparent.

Summary and Insights

The private sharing session showcased digital native thinking and cutting-edge insights of Web3 through Gary's in-depth sharing and open mic discussions. From the intersection of the Kondratieff cycle to the rise of RWA, from the scarcity of liberalism to innovations in Zika asset management, Gary analyzed trends and opportunities from a global perspective. Audience questions covered hot topics such as the potential of PayFi, the evolution of exchanges, and asset selection, with Gary's responses combining case studies and data to provide practical insights. The private sharing session encouraged participants to broaden their thinking in an atmosphere of honesty and inclusivity, jointly exploring the future of AI and Web3, contributing to the reshaping of the global economy and social landscape.