Asymmetry, the underlying color of Bitcoin from the perspective of "value investing"

Original author: Daii (X: @yzdxs8)

Today, the price of Bitcoin has once again broken through the $90,000 mark, and market sentiment is high, with social media filled with cheers of "the bull is back." But for those investors who hesitated at $80,000 and missed the opportunity to get on board, this moment feels more like an inner interrogation: Am I late again? Should I decisively buy during a pullback? Will I have another chance in the future?

This is exactly the key point we want to discuss: in an asset like Bitcoin, known for its extreme volatility, is there really a perspective of "value investing"? Can a strategy that seems to contradict its "high-risk, high-volatility" attributes capture an "asymmetric" opportunity in this turbulent game?

The so-called asymmetry in the investment world refers to the potential gains being far greater than the potential losses, or vice versa. It sounds like this is not a characteristic that Bitcoin possesses. After all, most people’s impression of Bitcoin is: either becoming rich overnight or losing everything.

However, behind this polarized perception lies a neglected possibility — during the stages of Bitcoin's periodic deep declines, the methodology of value investing may create a highly attractive risk-return structure.

Looking back at Bitcoin's history, it has plunged more than 80% or even 90% from its peak on several occasions. In moments like these, the market is shrouded in panic and despair, and the capitulation sell-off makes the price look like it has been knocked back into shape. But for those investors who have a deep understanding of Bitcoin's long-term logic, it is a classic "asymmetry" – a limited risk in exchange for a large potential return.

Such opportunities are not readily available. They test the investor's cognitive level, emotional control, and willpower for long-term holding. This raises another more fundamental question: do we have reason to believe that Bitcoin really has "intrinsic value"? And if it does, how should we quantify it, understand it, and develop our investment strategies accordingly?

In the following content, we will officially embark on this exploratory journey: revealing the deeper logic behind Bitcoin price fluctuations, clarifying how asymmetry shines during times of "blood flowing like rivers," and contemplating how the principles of value investing are revived in this decentralized era.

However, one thing you should understand first is that there has never been a shortage of asymmetric opportunities in Bitcoin investment, and there are many.

1. Bitcoin, why are there so many asymmetrical opportunities?

If you scroll through Twitter today, you will see an overwhelming celebration of the Bitcoin bull market. The price has once again surged past the $90,000 mark, and many people are shouting on social media as if the market forever belongs only to the prophets and the lucky.

But if you look back, you will find that the invitation to this feast was actually sent out when the market was at its most desperate moment; it’s just that many people did not have the courage to click on it.

1.1 Asymmetric Opportunities in History

Bitcoin has never followed a straight path upwards; its growth history is a script woven with extreme panic and irrational exuberance. Behind each of the deepest declines lies an incredibly attractive "asymmetric opportunity"—your maximum loss is limited, while your potential gains could be exponential.

Let's take a time travel and let the data speak.

2011: -94%, from $33 to $2

That was the moment when Bitcoin was "widely seen" for the first time, with its price skyrocketing from a few dollars to 33 dollars within six months. But soon after, a crash followed. The price of Bitcoin plummeted to 2 dollars, a drop of up to 94%.

You can imagine the kind of despair: major geek forums are quiet, developers are running away, and even Bitcoin core contributors are posting doubts about the project's prospects.

But if at that time you simply "bet once" and bought in with $1000, a few years later when the price of BTC breaks ten thousand, you would hold $5 million in chips.

2013 - 2015: -86%, Mt.Gox collapse

At the end of 2013, the price of Bitcoin first broke through $1000, attracting global attention. However, the good times did not last long; at the beginning of 2014, the world's largest Bitcoin exchange, Mt.Gox, announced its bankruptcy, and 850,000 Bitcoins vanished from the blockchain.

Overnight, the media unified their stance: "Bitcoin is finished." CNBC, BBC, and The New York Times all reported on the Mt. Gox scandal on their front pages, with the BTC price dropping from $1160 to $150, a decline of over 86%.

But what happened later? By the end of 2017, the same Bitcoin was priced at $20,000.

2017 - 2018: -83%, ICO bubble burst

The above image is a report by The New York Times on the recent market crash, with the text in the red box stating that this investor lost 70% of the value of their position.

2017 was the year when Bitcoin entered the public eye as the "year of mass speculation." A large number of ICO projects emerged, with white papers filled with terms like "disruption," "reconstruction," and "decentralized future," leading the entire market into a frenzy.

But when the tide went out, Bitcoin fell from its historical high of nearly $20,000 to $3,200, a drop of over 83%. That year, Wall Street analysts sneered, saying, "Blockchain is a joke"; the SEC filed numerous lawsuits; retail investors were liquidated and exited the market, leaving the forums in silence.

2021 - 2022: -77%, the industry's "black swan" chain explosion

In 2021, Bitcoin wrote a new myth: the price of a single coin broke 69,000 USD, with institutions, funds, countries, and retail investors rushing in.

But just a year later, BTC fell to $15,500. The collapse of Luna, the liquidation of Three Arrows Capital, and the explosion of FTX... a series of "black swan" events acted like dominoes, destroying the confidence of the entire crypto market. The Fear and Greed Index once dropped to 6 (extreme fear zone), and on-chain activity nearly froze.

The above image is from a report by The New York Times on May 12, 2022. It shows the sharp decline in the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum alongside UST. Now we know that behind the sharp decline of UST, there was actually the involvement of Galaxy Digital in boosting and unloading Luna.

But once again, at the end of 2023, Bitcoin quietly rose back to $40,000; after the ETF approval in 2024, it surged all the way up to today's $90,000.

Where do the asymmetric opportunities of Bitcoin 1.2 come from?

We have seen that Bitcoin has achieved astonishing rebounds multiple times in its history during moments that seemed like "catastrophic disasters." So the question arises—why is this the case? Why does this high-risk asset, which has been mocked by countless people as a "game of hot potato," repeatedly rise again after collapsing? More importantly, why does it provide such highly asymmetric investment opportunities for patient and informed investors?

The answer lies in three core mechanisms:

Mechanism 1: Depth Cycle + Extreme Emotions, Creating Pricing Deviation

Bitcoin is the only free market in the world that operates 24/7 without interruption. There is no circuit breaker mechanism, no market maker protection, and no Federal Reserve safety net. This means it amplifies human emotional fluctuations more easily than any other asset.

In a bull market, FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) dominates the market, retail investors chase prices madly, narratives soar, and valuations are severely overstretched.

In a bear market, FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) permeates the internet, voices of panic selling are heard everywhere, and prices are trampled into the dust.

This emotional amplification cycle causes Bitcoin to frequently enter a state of "serious divergence from its true value." And this is precisely the breeding ground for value investors seeking asymmetrical opportunities.

In short, the market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. The asymmetrical opportunities of Bitcoin precisely appear in those moments when the weighing machine has not yet started.

Mechanism 2: Price volatility is huge, but the probability of death is extremely low.

If Bitcoin really is "going to zero at any moment" as the media portrays, then it certainly has no investment value. But the reality is that it has "survived" after every crisis, and it comes back stronger than before.

In 2011, after the price collapsed to $2, the Bitcoin network continued to operate as usual, and transactions went on.

After the collapse of Mt.Gox in 2014, new exchanges quickly filled the void, and the number of users continued to grow.

After the FTX explosion in 2022, the Bitcoin blockchain continues to consistently produce blocks every 10 minutes.

The underlying network of Bitcoin has almost no history of downtime, and its system robustness far exceeds most people's understanding.

That is to say, even if the price is halved again and again, as long as the technological foundation and network effects of Bitcoin remain, it does not have a real risk of "going to zero." Thus, we have a very attractive structure: the space for short-term decline is limited, but the space for long-term growth is open.

This is asymmetry.

Mechanism Three: Value anchoring exists but is ignored, leading to "overselling".

• Many people believe that Bitcoin has no intrinsic value, and therefore it has no bottom in its decline. This view overlooks several key facts:
• Bitcoin has programmed scarcity (21 million coins, halving mechanism);
• Has the most powerful POW network in the world, cost is calculable;
• The network effect is strong, with the number of users surpassing 50 million, and both trading volume and hash rate reaching new highs repeatedly;
• Mainstream institutions and countries recognize their "reserve asset" attributes (ETFs, national fiat currencies, corporate balance sheets);

This is also the most controversial issue, which is whether Bitcoin has intrinsic value or not. This will be elaborated on in detail shortly.

Will Bitcoin go to zero?

It's possible, but the probability is extremely low. This website has recorded 430 instances of Bitcoin being declared dead.

However, there is a small line of text below the number of times death has been declared that tells everyone. If you had bought $100 every time someone declared Bitcoin dead, you would now have over $96.8 million, see the image below.

You should know that Bitcoin's underlying system has been operating stably for over a decade, almost without interruption. Whether it was the collapse of Mt. Gox, the Luna crash, or the FTX explosion, its blockchain has consistently produced blocks every 10 minutes. This technological resilience provides it with a strong survival baseline.

Now you should understand that Bitcoin is not a "logically irrational speculative asset." On the contrary, its asymmetry is so prominent because its long-term value logic truly exists, yet is often severely underestimated by market sentiment.

This leads us to the next question we must explore – can a Bitcoin that has no cash flow, no board of directors, and no factory really be considered a ‘value investment’?

2. Can Bitcoin also be used for value investing?

Bitcoin always experiences extreme volatility, with people oscillating between extreme greed and extreme fear. Is such an asset really suitable for "value investing"?

On one side is Graham and Buffett's concept of "margin of safety" and "discounted cash flow", while on the other side is a "digital commodity" that has no board of directors, does not pay dividends, does not generate profits, and even lacks a corporate entity. Within the traditional framework of value investing, Bitcoin seems to have no place.

But the key question is - how do you define "value"?

If we broaden our perspective from traditional financial reports and dividends, back to the core essence of value investing —

Buy at a price below intrinsic value and hold until value returns.

Therefore, Bitcoin may not only be suitable for value investment but may even more purely embody the original meaning of the word "value" than many stocks.

Benjamin Graham, the founder of value investing, once said: The essence of investment is not what you buy, but whether you buy it at a price lower than its value. The image above is a fictitious imaginary image of the AI, with Graham looking at Bitcoin with a puzzled face.

In other words, value investing is not limited to stocks, companies, or traditional assets. As long as something has intrinsic value and its market price is temporarily below that value, it can become a target for value investing.

But this also raises a more critical question: if we cannot use traditional metrics like price-to-earnings ratio or price-to-book ratio to estimate the value of Bitcoin, then where does its "intrinsic value" come from?

Although Bitcoin does not have financial statements like a company, it is far from having nothing. It has a complete set of analyzable, modelable, and quantifiable value systems. Although these "value signals" are not concentrated in a quarterly report like stocks, they are equally real and even more stable.

Below, I will mainly analyze the source of Bitcoin's "intrinsic value" from the perspectives of supply and demand.

2.1 Supply Side: Scarcity, a programmatically fixed deflationary model (Stock-to-Flow)

The fundamental value pillar of Bitcoin is verifiable scarcity.

Total supply cap: 21 million pieces, no increase in issuance;

Halved every four years: each halving reduces the annual supply by 50%, with a total issuance expected to be completed by the year 2140.

After the halving in 2024, Bitcoin's annual new supply will drop to an inflation rate of less than 1%, making it scarcer than gold.

The S2F model (Stock to Flow) proposed by analyst PlanB has accurately captured the medium to long-term upward trend of Bitcoin after halving multiple times—in the three halving events of 2012, 2016, and 2020, the price experienced several times growth within 12-18 months, as shown by the first three blue arrows in the figure below.

• After the first halving in 2012, the price of Bitcoin rose from about $12 to over $1000 within a year.
• After the second halving in 2016, the price skyrocketed from around $600 to nearly $20,000 in about 18 months.
• After the third halving in 2020, the price similarly rose from around $8,000 to $69,000 within about 18 months.

You also noticed the big question mark I added on the fourth blue arrow. This is the fourth halving; will it continue the previous upward trend? My answer is yes, but the magnitude may further shrink.

What you need to note is that the left vertical axis indicating the Bitcoin price in the above figure is on a logarithmic scale, where the height from 1 to 10 is the same as the height from 10 to 100. This helps us to clearly see the early trends of Bitcoin.

Let me focus on this model. The model draws on the valuation methods for precious metals such as gold and silver. Its core logic is:

• Stock: Refers to the total amount of assets that currently exist.
• Flow: Refers to the annual increase in supply.
• S 2 F ratio = Stock / Flow

The higher the S2F ratio of an asset, the less its annual new supply relative to the existing stock, making the asset scarcer, and theoretically, its value higher.

Gold has a very high S2F ratio (around 60), which is one of the important foundations for its role as a store of value. Bitcoin's S2F ratio continues to increase with each halving. For example, after the third halving in May 2020, Bitcoin's S2F ratio rose to about 56, which is very close to that of gold. After the fourth halving in April 2024, its S2F ratio is expected to double, exceeding 100, thereby surpassing gold in terms of scarcity. See the coordinates to the right of the question mark in the image above.

One of the most popular charts in the cryptocurrency world is called the Bitcoin S2F model fitting chart, as shown in the image below. It is not only known for its visual simplicity and intuitiveness but also became one of the strongest proofs for "Bitcoin's long-term price increase" due to the logic behind it.

In the image above, the horizontal axis represents the natural logarithm of S2F, while the vertical axis represents the natural logarithm of Bitcoin price. In this log-log space, we see an almost straight red regression line that crosses all halving periods in Bitcoin's history, demonstrating an astonishing fitting effect.

This chart attempts to tell everyone that whenever Bitcoin enters a new halving cycle, the newly produced output in circulation is "halved," the S2F ratio rises accordingly, and the long-term price predicted by the model also increases. This model has accurately predicted the first three times, but whether it will be accurate for the fourth time is still unknown.

However, every model has its limitations, and S2F is no exception. It focuses entirely on the supply side: halving, total supply cap, mining speed, but completely overlooks changes in demand. This held true when there were fewer early Bitcoin users and demand had not yet "matured." However, after entering 2020, the market structure, capital volume, and institutional participation have rapidly increased, and the determining factor of price has increasingly shifted to the demand side—namely adoption, market expectations, macro liquidity, regulatory policies, and even social media sentiment.

It is evident that a single S2F model cannot convince you, nor can it convince me; we also need a demand-side model.

2.2 Demand Side: Network Effects, Metcalfe’s Law

If the S2F model locks the "supply gate" of Bitcoin, then the network effect is the "demand pump" that determines how high the water level can rise. The most intuitive measure is the on-chain activity and the expansion speed of wallet users: by the end of 2024, non-zero balance addresses have exceeded 50 million, and in February this year, the daily active addresses returned to approximately 910,000, setting a new high for the past three months.

Using Metcalfe's Law to estimate roughly - network value ≈ k × N² - when the number of active users doubles, the theoretical network value can expand to four times the original. This is precisely the underlying force behind Bitcoin's price repeatedly "jumping up" over the past decade. The image above is also an AI-generated conceptual illustration, with old man Metcalfe joyfully watching Bitcoin.

Three Major Indicators on the Demand Side

• Active addresses: a measure of real usage intensity over a short period.
• Non-zero balance addresses: long-term penetration rate indicator; the compound annual growth rate over the past seven years is approximately 12% / year—despite the price halving, the number of holders continues to rise.
• Value-bearing layer: The capacity of Lightning Network channels and the number of off-chain payment transactions continue to reach new highs, providing a closed loop for "holding coins in stock → actual payments."

The demand model of "N² Drive + Network Stickiness" has two layers of meaning:

Positive cycle: More users → Deeper trading → Richer ecosystem → Value enhancement; this explains why whenever ETFs, cross-border settlements, or emerging market payments bring incremental users in, the price experiences a nonlinear jump.

Negative cycle risk: If faced with global regulatory crackdowns, technological alternatives (such as CBDC, Layer-2 payment methods), or macro liquidity exhaustion, activity and new users may decline simultaneously, leading to a reduction in valuation along with N²—this is a "demand gap" scenario that S2F cannot capture.

Therefore, by paralleling the supply-side S2F with the demand-side network effects, a more complete valuation framework can be formed: when S2F points to long-term scarcity, and the active addresses and non-zero balances continue to maintain an upward slope, the demand-supply mismatch will amplify asymmetry; conversely, once activity continues to decline, even if scarcity remains unchanged, it may trigger a synchronous adjustment of price and value.

In other words, scarcity prevents Bitcoin from "devaluing," and the network effect allows it to "appreciate."

It is especially worth mentioning that Bitcoin was once perceived as a "geek's toy" or "a reflection of a bubble." But today, its value narrative has quietly shifted.

Since 2020, MicroStrategy has included Bitcoin in its balance sheet and currently holds 538,000 Bitcoins, as shown in the image above. I previously provided a detailed introduction to Strategy's transformation in the article "Bitcoin Dividends."

Subsequently, global top asset management institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity also launched Bitcoin spot ETFs, bringing in billions of dollars in incremental funds. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs began offering BTC investment services to high-net-worth clients, and even countries like El Salvador have adopted it as legal tender. These changes represent not only an embrace at the capital level but also an endorsement of "legitimacy" and "institutional consensus."

2.3 Summary

In the valuation world of Bitcoin, supply and demand are never isolated variables, but rather a "double helix" that constitutes asymmetric opportunities.

On one hand, the S2F model starts from programmatic deflation and uses mathematical formulas to depict the lifting power of scarcity on long-term prices.

On the other hand, the network effect is based on on-chain data and user growth, demonstrating the real demand foundation for Bitcoin as a "digital network."

In such a structure, the mismatch between price and value becomes increasingly clear—this is precisely the moment that value investors anticipate: when sentiment is low, and prices are below what the comprehensive valuation model indicates, an asymmetrical opportunity window quietly opens. This also leads us to the real question we need to discuss: Is the essence of value investing to seek these asymmetrical opportunities that are undervalued by emotion and corrected by time?

3. The essence of value investing is to seek asymmetry?

The core of value investing has never been just about "buying cheap things", but is based on a more fundamental logical foundation: finding asymmetric structures with limited risk and potentially huge returns in the misalignment between price and value.

This is the essential difference between value investment and trend investment, momentum trading, and technical games.

Trend investing relies on market inertia, while speculative trading bets on short-term fluctuations. Value investing, on the other hand, involves calmly assessing the long-term value of assets when market sentiment is extremely detached from rational judgment, decisively buying in when prices are significantly lower than that value, and waiting for the market to return to rationality. This approach works precisely because it establishes a natural asymmetric structure: the worst outcome you bear is a controllable loss, while the optimal outcome you gain often exceeds expectations.

If we examine the logic of value investing closely, we will find that it is not a specific operational method, but a structural thinking based on probability and imbalance.

Investors analyze the "margin of safety" to assess the downside potential in the worst-case scenario;

The reason to study "intrinsic value" is to clarify the possibility and space for target price regression;

The reason for "holding patiently" is that the returns from asymmetric structures often take time to materialize.

All of this is not about pursuing perfect predictive ability, but rather about constructing a "betting structure" within a range of uncertainties—where your gains when you judge correctly far exceed your losses when you judge incorrectly. This is the essence of asymmetric investing.

Many people misunderstand value investing as conservative, dull, and low volatility, but in fact, it is quite the opposite. True value investing does not mean "low returns, low risk"; it means exchanging controllable risk for a highly asymmetric return potential. Whether it is early shareholders of Amazon or long-term investors quietly buying Bitcoin during a bear market, they are essentially doing the same thing: when most people underestimate the future of an asset, and the price is pushed to extreme ranges due to emotions, policies, or misunderstandings, they are quietly positioning themselves.

From this perspective:

Value investing is not an ancient strategy of "buying cheap and steadily receiving dividends" from the past, but a common language for all investors who genuinely pursue asymmetric return structures.

It emphasizes not only cognitive ability but also emotional control, risk awareness, and faith in time. It does not require you to be smarter than others, but rather to remain calm when others are panicking and to dare to bet when others are fleeing.

Therefore, understanding the deep relationship between value investing and asymmetry also explains why Bitcoin, despite its form being different from traditional assets, can be embraced by serious value investing methods. Its volatility is not an enemy, but a gift; its panic is not a risk, but a pricing error; its asymmetry is a scarce asset revaluation opportunity of the times. And true value investors are waiting for the next such opportunity, quietly setting up in the still waters.

4. How to Invest in Bitcoin Using Asymmetry?

After understanding the source of Bitcoin's intrinsic value and recognizing that market fluctuations create opportunities where the price is below its value, the next question is: as ordinary investors, how should we practice value investing in Bitcoin?

It is important to emphasize that value investing is not about trying to "buy the dip," which means attempting to purchase at the lowest price point. This is an extremely difficult, if not impossible, task to accomplish. The core of value investing lies in starting to buy in batches, with discipline, when the price enters what you judge to be an obviously undervalued "value zone," and patiently holding on while waiting for the return and growth of value.

For a highly volatile asset like Bitcoin, here are some simple and practical value investment strategies:

4.1 Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)

This is the most basic strategy and the most suitable for most people. DCA refers to investing a fixed amount to buy Bitcoin at regular time intervals (for example, weekly or monthly), regardless of whether the current price is high or low.

Advantages:

• Averaging down: Buy a smaller quantity when prices are high and a larger quantity when prices are low. Over the long term, your average holding cost will be lowered, falling below the market average price during a continuous upward trend.
• Overcoming emotions: DCA is a disciplined investment method that can help you avoid the impulse to chase after rising prices and panic sell during market fluctuations. You just need to execute according to your plan without the anxiety of subjective judgment and timing.
• Easy to use: No complicated analysis or frequent operations are required, suitable for investors who do not have much time or energy to study the market.
• Regarding DCA, I have elaborated on it in detail in "Bitcoin: The Ultimate Hedge for Long-Termists". If you still have questions, I suggest you take a serious look at it.

4.2 Dynamic adjustment based on market sentiment indicators: Fear & Greed Index

On the basis of DCA, if you want to slightly improve the efficiency of your investment, you can introduce market sentiment indicators as supplementary judgments. Among them, the "Crypto Fear & Greed Index" is a widely watched indicator.

The index integrates multiple factors such as market volatility, trading volume, social media sentiment, market dominance, and survey data to measure the overall market sentiment with a value ranging from 0 to 100:

• 0-25: Extreme Fear
• 25-45: Fear
• 45-55: Neutral
• 55-75: Greed
• 75-100: Extreme Greed

The contrarian thinking of value investing tells us, "Be greedy when others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy." Therefore, we can incorporate the fear and greed index into the DCA strategy:

Basic Regular Investment: Maintain the regular investment plan of every month/week unchanged.

Fear-based scaling: When the index enters the "extreme fear" zone (for example, below 20 or 15), it indicates that market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, and prices may be severely undervalued. At this time, in addition to regular dollar-cost averaging, you can make an extra investment.

Caution in Greed / Reduce Holdings (Optional): When the index enters the "Extreme Greed" zone (for example, above 80 or 85), it indicates that market sentiment is overheating and risks are accumulating. At this time, you may choose to pause dollar-cost averaging or even consider selling part of your profits in batches to lock in gains.

4.3 Important Notice

Never invest more than you can afford to lose. Bitcoin is still a high-risk asset, and its price could go to zero (although this possibility decreases as it develops, the theoretical risk always exists). Allocate your assets reasonably; the proportion of Bitcoin in your total investment portfolio should match your risk tolerance. However, Bitcoin is also the least risky cryptocurrency, so it should dominate your total crypto assets. My asset allocation is - Bitcoin : Ethereum : Others = 5 : 3 : 2.

Using DCA or a dynamic DCA strategy that combines emotional indicators essentially embodies the core principles of value investing: acknowledging that market predictions are impossible, and utilizing the irrational fluctuations of the market to accumulate assets in a disciplined manner when prices may be below intrinsic value. Remember: investing should not become the most important thing in your life; you shouldn't lose sleep over it.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is not a gambling table where you escape reality; it is a footnote for you to re-understand reality.

In this uncertain world, we often mistakenly think that safety is stability, is risk aversion, is staying away from volatility. But true safety has never been about avoiding risk; it is about understanding risk, mastering risk—and being able to see that value cornerstone buried under the sand when everyone else turns to flee.

This is the true essence of value investing: to seek asymmetric structures forged by cognition amidst emotional misalignment; to quietly buy those forgotten chips by the market at the deepest depths of the cycle, which will ultimately return to their rightful place.

Bitcoin, as a financial species that has scarcity written into its algorithm, evolves value within a network, and repeatedly resurrects in panic, is the purest manifestation of this asymmetry. Its price may never be calm; but its logic remains consistent: scarcity is the lower limit, the network is the upper limit, volatility is an opportunity, and time is leverage.

You can never accurately time the bottom of Bitcoin, but you can navigate through one cycle after another, continuously buying undervalued assets at reasonable prices as the market misunderstands their value. It's not because you have miraculous judgment, but because you possess a higher-level way of thinking—you believe that the best bet is to place your chips on the side of time when others are turning away.

So please remember this sentence:

Those who bet at the depths of irrationality are often the most rational; and time is the most faithful executor of asymmetry.

This game always belongs to those who understand the order behind the fluctuations and see the logic behind the collapse. Because they know: the world does not reward emotions, the world rewards cognition. And cognition will ultimately be proven by time.

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