Will 2025 trigger the "Supercycle" in encryption? Market opinions are divided.

Source: Cointelegraph Original text: "Will 2025 Trigger a 'Crypto Super Cycle'? Market Opinions Diverge"

As Bitcoin returns above $90,000, the crypto market reignites hope once again. This wave of rebound exhibits a key characteristic: crypto assets seem to be gradually "de-coupling"; even when the stock market is flat, digital assets can still rise independently. Ethereum and other mainstream cryptocurrencies continue to rise on their own momentum, demonstrating that even without Bitcoin's influence, the overall market has strong momentum. At the same time, global macroeconomic pressures are easing. For example, the cooling of the international trade war has boosted investor sentiment, further supporting this round of crypto gains.

In 2025, the crypto market experienced a thrilling surge, with Bitcoin hitting new highs repeatedly, bringing back an old question: "Will this be the crypto supercycle?" In industry terminology, a supercycle refers to a bull market that far exceeds the scale and duration of previous cycles. This is different from the traditional "boom-bust" structure and is based on long-term gains driven by mainstream adoption and institutional investment.

This article will outline the development path of the bull market in 2025, comparing it with previous cycles (2013, 2017, 2021), and discussing why many believe that the best times for Bitcoin and altcoins have yet to come.

The current bull market began after the crypto winter of late 2022. At that time, Bitcoin plummeted to $15,000 and industry confidence almost collapsed. However, in 2023, the market is quietly brewing a rebound: long-term investors have increased their positions at a low level, and institutions have begun to plan for the next round of upward cycle, such as applying for ETFs and developing custody services. At the beginning of 2024, bitcoin returned to the $40,000 mark, laying the groundwork for the upcoming halving in April.

Heading into the beginning of 2025, the crypto market is as hot as it was in 2021. Bitcoin broke through the previous high of $69,000 and entered the six-digit territory for the first time (briefly touching $100,000), and market sentiment quickly warmed up. News such as the prospect of US spot ETF approvals and the friendly policy tendencies of various countries further fueled market confidence. The total crypto market capitalization exceeded $3 trillion, surpassing the peak of 2021. What's more, the pace of the rally this time is more stable and sustained, and it is not as quick as in the past to peak and then plummet. This also makes the "supercycle" theory once again hotly debated.

Every bull market has its own style. The year 2013 was a carnival for early tech geeks, with Bitcoin rising from hundreds to over a thousand dollars, drawing mainstream attention for the first time. In 2017, driven by ICOs and retail FOMO, Bitcoin soared from $1,000 to nearly $20,000. The year 2021 was the result of institutional entry and the explosive growth of NFTs/DeFi, with Bitcoin reaching $69,000 and a total market cap close to $30 trillion.

By 2025, Bitcoin's market value has already surpassed the trillion-dollar mark, with participants not only including retail investors and project parties, but also national-level institutions, Fortune 500 companies, and sovereign funds. This means that the participation base, capital scale, and market maturity in this cycle are incomparable to previous ones.

From the chart (assuming an illustration), each bull market far exceeds the peak of the previous round. The total market value was only about $15 billion in 2013, rising to $600 billion in 2017, and reaching $2.9 trillion in 2021. Now, in 2025, it has surpassed $3 trillion, further validating the supercycle theory that "each wave of adoption pushes up the market's bottom and top."

In addition, the macro factors driving this round of bull market are also noticeably different: in 2013, there was the Cyprus banking crisis and dark web transactions; in 2017, it was the ICO boom; in 2021, it was pandemic stimulus and massive liquidity. The drivers for 2025 include: high inflation pushing funds towards inflation-hedging assets like Bitcoin, a slowing of monetary tightening policies, and the election of pro-crypto politicians, all of which constitute an unprecedented external boost.

One key factor that cannot be ignored is the Bitcoin halving in April 2024. The block reward will decrease from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Historically, after each halving, the market has experienced a strong rise: the 2012 halving led to the bull market in 2013, the 2016 halving corresponded with 2017, and the 2020 halving resulted in a significant increase in 2021.

The 2024 halving has been anticipated by the market, but the changes in supply and demand remain significant: the decline in miner income has led to hoarding, while demand continues to grow. This halving coincides with the ETF boom and a warming regulatory environment, which can be described as "adding fuel to the fire." Bitcoin's price doubled from $40,000 before the halving to over $80,000 by the end of the year, paving the way for the 2025 market.

Moreover, the annual inflation rate of Bitcoin has fallen below 1% (lower than gold), strengthening the "digital gold" narrative and attracting more institutional involvement. Therefore, many analysts believe that this bull market is far from over, and the supply-demand dynamics will continue to ferment in the coming months.

Has the market peaked? Current signals indicate - it has not peaked yet, there is still room.

First, institutional funds are flowing in at an accelerated pace. In 2024, giants like BlackRock and Fidelity submitted applications for spot ETFs, and the market generally expects approval in 2025. A single ETF could potentially bring in hundreds of billions of dollars in incremental capital. Even without approval yet, expectations are sufficient to drive funds to position themselves in advance.

Secondly, macro and geopolitical trends are improving. Interest rate hikes have paused, and the market expects a possible interest rate cut by the end of the year, which is favorable for risk assets. The banking crisis and currency devaluation have also enhanced Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes.

More importantly, the on-chain sentiment indicators have not reached a frenzy state. Google's search volume for "Bitcoin" has not yet reached the peak of 2017, and retail FOMO sentiment is mild, indicating that the market is still in a healthy phase. Compared to the MEME coin bubble period of 2021, the market structure today is more rational and institutional.

If this is a super cycle, there will definitely be an "Altseason" afterwards - that is, altcoins will completely outperform Bitcoin.

But for now, Bitcoin is the protagonist. Its market capitalization (Dominance) has risen from 42% to more than 60%, a new high in recent years. Historical data shows that the proportion of Bitcoin will fall in the later stages of the bull market, and altcoins will rise. However, this trend has not yet been seen, indicating that the capital rotation is still ahead.

The reasons for this situation may include:

But we have seen some signs: ETH has quietly doubled with some mid-sized tokens, and Ethereum is set to start outperforming Bitcoin in the spring of 2025.

Ethereum (ETH)

King of the Shanzhai, a pillar of the DeFi/NFT/L2 ecosystem. By 2025, network efficiency will see a significant improvement, and the trend of tokenomics becoming deflationary is evident. Currently, the price is still below historical highs (around $4,800). If a spot ETF for ETH is launched or DeFi gains popularity again in the future, ETH is expected to start a new round of explosion.

Solana (SOL)

Strong recovery after hitting the bottom in 2022. Now stable, fast, and with active developers. The NFT and gaming ecosystem is rapidly developing, with prices rebounding from single digits to tens of dollars, but still not reaching the 2021 peak (around $260), regarded as a major L1 project with huge potential for catching up.

Render (RNDR)

A project that combines encryption with graphic rendering (Render Network). It provides decentralized GPU computing resources for AI, the metaverse, film and television, and other fields. From 2023 to 2024, it has accumulated real use cases and collaborations, and market enthusiasm is gradually rising. The market capitalization is relatively small, with high volatility but high potential during a bull market.

From multiple dimensions, this round of the crypto bull market has distinct "super cycle" characteristics:

But the market is never smooth sailing. Even during a super cycle, one still needs to cope with periodic adjustments. Therefore, risk control and information updates are particularly important.

Overall, if the supercycle theory proves true, we may see market capitalization, use cases, and user scale reach new peaks in the second half of the year. Currently, Bitcoin remains the leader, but the breakout of ETH, SOL, RNDR, and others may be the next chapter.

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