What is the bearish assumption for Bitcoin prices in 2025?

Introduction

In April 2025, the price of BTC fell from its peak to a low of $80,000, sparking discussions among users about a potential collapse of the cryptocurrency market. Factors such as the impact of the US Dollar Index on Bitcoin and the slowdown in inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have collectively shaped the current market landscape. Despite short-term fluctuations, analysts remain optimistic about the medium to long-term outlook for Bitcoin in 2025.

Key Factors Affecting Bearish Bitcoin Prices

In April 2025, the price of Bitcoin experienced a significant correction. Analysis shows that this round of decline was mainly influenced by several key factors. First, the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate hike policy has put pressure on risk assets. According to data from Gate.io, since March, the price of Bitcoin has dropped from a historic high of $109,000 to a low of around $80,000. Second, the net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs has been far below market expectations this year, and the slowing pace of capital inflow into Bitcoin ETFs has also become one of the reasons for price pressure. Additionally, the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation has brought worries to the market. The trade policies of the Trump administration have sparked concerns about the global economic outlook, which in turn has affected investors' risk appetite.

The Impact of Institutional Investor Behavior on Bearish Bitcoin Prices

The behavior of institutional investors has had a significant impact on the price movement of Bitcoin. According to Markus Thielen's analysis, the price of Bitcoin may have entered a potential phase of long-term consolidation and will remain bearish in the short term. On-chain data shows that the market environment is more bearish than bullish. The cautious attitude of institutional investors is reflected in the slowdown in ETF inflows. It is worth noting that ETF inflows have shown a negative growth trend for three consecutive months, indicating that institutional investors are cautious about Bitcoin's short-term prospects. However, in the long run, increased institutional participation remains an important factor supporting the price of Bitcoin. With the gradual clarity of the regulatory environment and the improvement of market infrastructure, it is expected that more institutional investors will enter the cryptocurrency market.

The Impact of the Dollar Index on Bearish Bitcoin Prices

There is a significant negative correlation between the US Dollar Index and Bitcoin prices. Since the beginning of 2025, the US Dollar Index has fallen from around 110 points to below 100 points, reaching a new low since July 2023. At the same time, Bitcoin prices have not seen the anticipated rise. Analysts believe that the weakening of the dollar may be an important factor supporting Bitcoin prices from declining sharply. If the US Dollar Index continues to decline, it is expected to have a positive impact on Bitcoin prices. Below is a comparison of the US Dollar Index and Bitcoin price data:

| Time | Dollar Index | Bitcoin Price (USD) | | :------------: | :------------: | :------------: | | January 2025 | 110 | 70,000 | | April 25 | 100 | 80,000 |

Conclusion

The cryptocurrency market is currently in a phase of consolidation and adjustment. Over the past two months since mid-February, although Bitcoin prices have retraced, they have remained relatively stable compared to the 12% drop in the S&P 500 index. Market analysts expect this consolidation phase to last until June. However, the mid- to long-term outlook remains optimistic. The market in the second half of the year may exhibit a different trend than in the first half, a pattern that has occurred multiple times in history. It is noteworthy that Bitcoin's dominance is breaking through, indicating that Bitcoin is performing stronger relative to other cryptocurrencies. This dynamic favors subsequent capital rotation from Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies, a pattern that was seen in 2017, 2020, and 2023.

Risk Warning: Deteriorating geopolitical situations or tightening regulatory policies may lead to significant fluctuations in Bitcoin prices, and investors should carefully assess the risks.

Author: Gate.io Researcher JJ M. *This article only represents the author's views and does not constitute any trading advice. Investment involves risks, and decisions should be made with caution. *The content of this article is original and copyrighted by Gate.io. If reprinted, please indicate the author and source; otherwise, legal responsibility will be pursued.