🔥Is it a bull run overnight? BTC surges to 95000, will retail investors chase the price or take profit? All spot trades by K have taken off this month + Chapter 18 of the Teaching of Chan Theory Diagram👇

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The price of Bitcoin has been in a continuous downtrend since January, and the overall cryptocurrency market has been sluggish. However, starting last night, BTC rebounded, reaching a peak price of over $95,700, which may signal the beginning of a new long-term upward trend for Bitcoin.
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The current price of BTC is reported at 94,000 USD, with a daily high of 95,750 USD. The entire crypto market is also in sync with the price of Bitcoin, as many cryptocurrencies have recorded double-digit increases. For a moment, the voices of bulls returning are incessant. What has caused the crypto market to suddenly rebound sharply? How will the market trend move in the future?
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🔥Is Trump going to drop the tariff stick? In the early morning, Trump stated that the tariffs on Chinese goods would not reach 145%, and the tariffs would significantly decrease, but would not be zero. When asked if he would take a tough stance against China, Trump said he would not. Additionally, Treasury Secretary Basent hinted at a loosening of tariff policies during a closed-door meeting at JPMorgan. White House Press Secretary Levitt stated at a press conference that Trump's relationship with China is moving in the right direction.
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Today the market welcomes a day of compromise: Trump seems to have made concessions on trade policy and the fate of Powell, leading stock index futures to rise accordingly; Musk also announced that he will gradually withdraw from the Department of Government Efficiency and return to Tesla's core business. That's the market for you; it will always force you to bow down and concede.
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The US dollar continues to recover some of yesterday's losses. Meanwhile, the stock market is strengthening, and there has been some small buying in bonds. The market is eager to hear good news. Today's good news is that Trump remains silent on trade issues. This may lead some market participants to believe that he is eager to reach an agreement, as well as anything that could reverse the market.
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🎉Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve in the financial markets. The tension between Trump and Fed Chair Powell is escalating. Their differences mainly focus on the inflationary pressures brought by tariffs and the Fed's reluctance to cut interest rates, casting a shadow over the dollar. The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, has been falling since February, reaching its lowest point since 2022. Trump's public pressure on Powell, along with speculation that he may attempt to dismiss Powell or other Fed officials, has heightened concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve—the independence of the Fed is a foundational pillar of the U.S. financial system.
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The potential consequences of the devaluation of the US dollar on the global economy are difficult to predict, but one thing is certain: Bitcoin will be a major beneficiary. It is a decentralized, censorship-resistant currency, fully managed by code, with a fixed supply schedule, and no central authority manipulating its issuance. As people's confidence in the traditional currency system continues to wane, the narrative surrounding Bitcoin becomes increasingly strong.
If concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve persist, Bitcoin may rise to historic highs. Due to its decentralized ledger, cryptocurrencies serve as a hedge against the risks of the existing financial system. This was reflected in the U.S. Treasury risk after Trump hinted that he might dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell due to a desire for interest rate cuts. The yield premium for investors buying long-term Treasury bonds relative to short-term bonds has risen significantly, benefiting Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has decisively broken through months of downward trend, and when the technical downward trend is broken, a technical upward trend will emerge.
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🎉Bitcoin's market share has risen to a nearly four-year high. Today, Bitcoin's market share (BTC.D) surged to 64.61%, the highest since February 2021. The high Bitcoin market share indicates a lull in the altcoin market, but also suggests that a rebound is imminent. According to historical data, last November when Bitcoin's market share surged above 60%, altcoins began a mini bull market. In both 2019 and 2021, Bitcoin's market share reached above 70%, followed by a sweeping rally.
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What is the future trend of BTC? In the long term, the institutional demand for Bitcoin from exchange-traded funds (ETF) and traders seeking to hedge macroeconomic risks may lead to Bitcoin's price doubling this year. The drivers of institutional demand (including corporate Bitcoin buyers and exchanges) may continue to propel positive price momentum. However, with renewed investor optimism and new hopes for easing US-China trade tensions, there are still headwinds against Bitcoin's rise, which may limit its further increase. If market sentiment weakens, a market correction may occur.
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Due to the pressure on the economy from tariffs and policy uncertainty, the U.S. GDP is expected to grow only 0.5% from the fourth quarter of 2024. Currently, surveys of businesses and consumers indicate an economic slowdown, but official economic data has not yet shown signs of this.
Economic indicators may begin to show a clearer recession in the late summer. The evolution of data in recent weeks is consistent with the previous 'event-driven' slowdown. However, it is still too early to draw strong conclusions from the currently limited data.
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Regarding the dynamics of China-US trade, we have seen a shift in the China-US trade game from "high-profile confrontation" to "high-pressure negotiations + gradual easing." Currently, we are still in a very uncertain period, with the market in a state of fluctuation rather than a trend—just volatility, response, and waiting.
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🎉 Today's fear index is 72, and the market has turned to greed overnight. Bitcoin has surged directly to 9.5, which is actually a bit unexpected, as it touched this level overnight. Let's reduce positions at 9.5 in the short term. The US stock market opened higher, and both the Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened higher as well. Trump can't bring back old Powell, and the easing of tariff issues has driven this increase. In fact, the increase isn't that significant, but the fear index is surprisingly high. Let's pocket the profits in the short term, and it's not too late to enter again once the tariff issues are truly resolved and the interest rate-cut signals are clear.
#trump# #alpaca# #sui# #eth# #btc#