When will alts start after Bitcoin hits a new high?

The price of Bitcoin recently reached a historic high of $123,000, attracting market attention towards the trends of alts. By reviewing the past three Bitcoin breakout trends, we might be able to find some patterns.

Currently, Bitcoin is in the price discovery phase, but the momentum of alts is relatively stagnant, and large-cap coins have not yet shown significant movement. Let's analyze the possible scenarios after the market breakout.

Since mid-2023, every time Bitcoin breaks through, it triggers a collective rebound in alts:

• 30,000 dollars → 44,000 dollars
• 45,000 dollars → 71,000 dollars
• $71,000 → $105,000

Historical data shows that every time there is a breakout, alts will experience an explosive window period of 3-5 weeks. Following this, Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase, its dominant position rebounds, and the gains of alts are partially erased.

Currently, we seem to be in a similar scenario: Bitcoin has broken through the resistance level of $107,000, and has now risen to $123,000, with the potential to challenge the $150,000 mark. If historical patterns repeat, we may currently be at the starting point of a new altcoin season.

However, it is important to note that this is not a half-year-long altcoin frenzy, but rather a short sprint. Bitcoin's dominance has not broken through key levels, so this is not a full-blown alt season. However, if Bitcoin's dominance does not continue to rise, alts are still expected to rally, similar to the last two market cycles.

Mainstream Coin Trends Diverge

Mainstream cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP have shown significant divergence in their trends. Ethereum lagged behind Bitcoin at the end of 2023, but each subsequent pullback has seen the bottom gradually rise. Solana had a strong performance early on, but its momentum is now close to stagnation. XRP initially performed weakly, but saw explosive growth after last year's U.S. elections.

Signs of Capital Rotation Emerging

A notable phenomenon currently is that payment tokens have taken the lead, including "bank tokens" that comply with the ISO20022 standard, which are gaining favor with investors.

Large-cap coins that have not yet launched are worth paying attention to:

• BNB: The exchange rate against BTC is close to historical cycle lows.
• LINK: Continues to decline but the fundamentals remain strong
• ADA: Is forming a long-term double bottom pattern
• TRX: Ready to take off
• DOGE: Often erupts during Bitcoin breakout cycles

These may become core rotation targets.

If Solana begins to gain funding favor, its ecosystem tokens are also worth paying attention to. Layer 1 clones like Sui, Aptos, AVAX, etc. may also become hotspots.

Investment Strategy

Current investment strategies to consider:

• Focus on blue-chip tokens
• Looking for coins that have not yet launched
• Pay attention to strong narratives when leading projects launch.
• Temporarily avoid small-cap coins to reduce risk

Capital rotation is key, and one should not blindly chase after rising prices. Alts may enter a strong cycle for 1 to 2 months, but historical experience reminds us to take profits and not be greedy.

If Bitcoin rises to $150,000, the top 20 coins by market cap may collectively increase, and some assets may experience significant catch-up rallies. It is advised to operate rationally, hold strong tokens, and decisively handle lagging assets.

Maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude and avoid falling into blind euphoria. Closely monitor Bitcoin's dominance and BTC trading pair activities. While the current period may not be as frenzied as in 2017 or 2021, it still represents a reliable investment window. Small-cap coins will eventually rotate, but patience is required to wait for the right opportunity.