Crypto Market Dynamics: Ethereum firmly above $3000, Bitcoin's key support at $115,000 facing a test

1. Market Overview

The Federal Reserve's $3.1 billion renovation costs have sparked controversy, with politicians seizing the opportunity to pressure the Fed Chair in an attempt to influence monetary policy. However, the current U.S. financial environment is quite loose, with the Chicago Fed's broad financial conditions index hitting a three-year low, the stock market reaching new highs, and the size of money market funds at $7.1 trillion. The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: inflation remains above target and the job market is strong, but the government is demanding significant rate cuts due to high national debt issuance pressure.

Stablecoins remain a hot topic in the market. A senior analyst predicts that the large-scale application of stablecoins will focus on three major areas: B2B settlements, crypto assets and the DeFi ecosystem, as well as the expansion of sovereign finance. He emphasized that stablecoins linked to local currencies have strategic significance in promoting the internationalization of local currencies and de-dollarization.

Bitcoin is facing short-term correction risks. Several analysts point out that the $113,000-$115,000 range is a key resistance, and there has been a net outflow from the spot ETF in the past three days. If it breaks through $123,000, it could continue to rise to $135,000-$150,000; if it falls below $110,000, bears may dominate. In the long term, some analysts have given a buy range of $89,380 and a target price of $200,000.

In contrast, Ethereum has shown relatively strong performance. Data indicates solid support in the $2000-$3000 range, with $4500 being a key resistance level above. However, some analysts warn that Ethereum may be unstable in the short term, with the risk of a pullback due to reasons including overbought technical indicators and soaring borrowing costs. Historical data shows that Ethereum's average return rate in the third quarter was 8.19%, and 22.59% in the fourth quarter.

Funds are flowing from Bitcoin to Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies, but a full "altcoin season" has yet to be confirmed. In the NFT market, a listed company acquired a rare "Cowboy Ape" CryptoPunk for $5.15 million. A well-known figure predicts that CryptoPunks will outperform Ethereum in USD during this cycle.

2. Key Data (as of July 25, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $115,774 (Year-to-date +23.39%), daily trading volume $70.943 billion
• Ethereum: $3,638.16 (Year-to-date +8.78%), Daily Trading Volume $54.538 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 71 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC 0.84 sat/vB, ETH 0.26 Gwei
• Market Cap Share: BTC 60.8%, ETH 11.6%
• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 48.19%/51.81%
• Sector performance: The NFT sector fell by 7%; the AI sector fell by 4.3%
• 24-hour liquidation data: 201,010 people liquidated, total amount $707 million
• BTC Trend Channel: Upper Limit 118,465.84 USD, Lower Limit 116,119.99 USD
• ETH Trend Channel: Upper bound $3,494.47, Lower bound $3,425.27

3. ETF Fund Flows (as of July 24)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$227 million, converted to net inflow
• Ethereum ETF: +231 million USD, net inflow for 15 consecutive days

4. Important Event Preview

• A trading platform will delist multiple perpetual contracts on July 25.
• A certain platform will launch DePHY Network (PHY) on July 26.
• Venom (VENOM) will unlock approximately 59.26 million tokens on July 25.
• AltLayer (ALT) will unlock approximately 240 million tokens on July 25.
• Sahara AI (SAHARA) will unlock approximately 84.27 million tokens on July 26.

5. Market Hotspots

• A certain company's co-founder recently transferred approximately $140 million worth of XRP to the exchange.
• A Solana staking ETF from an asset management company will integrate JitoSOL.
• A stablecoin issuer has minted 2 billion tokens on the Ethereum chain.
• The TON Foundation and Kingsway Capital plan to raise $400 million for the TONCoin treasury.
• A certain company plans to increase the fundraising scale for purchasing Bitcoin to 2 billion USD.
• A listed company acquired CryptoPunk #5577 for $5.15 million and increased its holdings of Ether.
• A digital asset custody institution's Ethereum holdings exceed $2 billion.
• The two companies collaborated to launch the first compliant and regulated stablecoin USDtb.
• A certain cross-chain protocol has launched a reserve fund to repurchase tokens using all protocol revenue.
• A Hong Kong company announced an 80 million HKD cryptocurrency investment plan.
• A security company launched a security fund with 500 million tokens
• The new Solana ecosystem company Accelerate plans to raise $1.5 billion.
• The next round of compensation for FTX will be executed on September 30, releasing $1.9 billion in disputed debt reserve.
• A mining company has launched options trading on the New York Stock Exchange, planning to acquire 5% of the Ethereum supply.