Gold approaches a new high of $2800, with the US presidential election and war hedging...rising even more than the S&P 500, will BTC be next?

The gold Spot price is approaching $2,800, reaching a historical high of $2,782.2 per ounce at the time of submission, with a rise of over 37% this year, higher than the S&P 500 index's 22% rise. The main factors driving the rise of gold prices include the US presidential election, war hedging, interest rate expectations, and Central Banks increasing their gold reserves. (Previous summary: Gold breaks historical high of $2,722! Will the "digital gold" BTC still have opportunities?) (Background information: Gold breaks $2,660 again, can the Effect of Risk Aversion sustain? Will BTC be next?) The gold Spot price continues to hit new highs, approaching $2,800. According to TradingView data, the gold Spot price reached a historical high of $2,782.2 per ounce, currently trading at $2,778.2 per ounce, rising 1.18% yesterday and 37.4% year-to-date, higher than the S&P 500 index's 22% rise, becoming one of the most eye-catching assets this year. Multiple factors support the price of gold. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, pointed out that the main driving factors include: financial instability, hedging demand, Central Banks increasing gold reserves, Chinese investors turning to gold due to record-low savings rates and concerns about the real estate market, and the increased uncertainty of the recent US presidential election. Regarding each point, the following supplements are made: 1) Uncertainty of the US presidential election The US presidential election will be held on November 5, and the swing state's election is difficult to predict, which increases market instability and prompts investors to turn to gold as a hedge asset. Hansen said: The political uncertainty in the US is the main reason for pushing hedging demand. In addition, Forex market analyst Fawad Razaqzada also said that the uncertainty of the US election has supported gold prices in the short term, and gold is still a classic hedge tool to deal with market fluctuations. 2) War hedging Starting from October last year, Israel has conflicts with Hamas, Iraq, Lebanon and other merch organizations or countries in the Middle East, and the 2-year-old Ukrainian-Russian war has not yet ended. Recently, North Korea sent troops to support Russia, escalating the Ukrainian-Russian war and pushing it towards internationalization. South Korea stated that if North Korea intervenes in the Ukrainian-Russian war, Seoul will consider providing weapons to Ukraine. Against the background of the escalation of regional wars into internationalization, the hedge value of gold is gradually increasing. 3) Interest rate expectations Market expectations for a Fed interest rate cut have driven the rise of gold. Currently, according to CME Fedwatch tool, the probability of a 1-point interest rate cut in November is 99%, and the probability of no interest rate cut is 1%. As gold itself does not generate interest, an interest rate cut will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby increasing its attractiveness to investors. Although the US dollar has recently strengthened and long-term bond yields have risen, theoretically weakening the attractiveness of non-yield assets such as gold, gold prices continue to rise. Jeff Jacobson, an analyst at 22V Research, said that this shows that the market's sentiment towards gold is extremely strong and powerful. As the upward trend of gold is quite stable, it indicates that there may still be enough upward space. However, Razaqzada is worried that if the current trend of yields and the US dollar continue, the short-term prospects for gold may come under pressure, but there are no relevant signs yet. 4) Central Banks increasing gold reserves Global Central Banks have significantly increased their gold holdings, especially emerging markets that hope to reduce their dependence on the US dollar due to geopolitical tensions. This strong demand has provided important support for the gold price this year. Analysts are concerned about overheated market sentiment. However, some analysts suggest that investors still need to be cautious to avoid increasing investment risks due to excessively high market sentiment. Jay Kaeppel, senior research analyst at SentimenTrader, said that although gold currently shows many favorable trend signals, gold prices may rise like a "parabolic rise" in the late 1970s and early 1980s. In other words, gold may rise to unsustainable heights, eventually forming a bubble and bursting. Kaeppel warned: "In the next few weeks or months, there is a significant possibility of a pullback in gold prices." Rick Bensignor of Bensignor Investment Strategies also holds a similar view. Recently, he sold about half of his gold position at a price of $2,700 per ounce and reminded investors "not to be misled by the media's hype of gold." It is worth mentioning that the recent performance of BTC, which is hailed as "digital gold," is also impressive. After breaking through the $70,000 mark yesterday, it continues to rise towards the previous high. Early this morning, BTC rose to a highest of $73,620, only $157 away from its historical high of $73,777, almost synchronized with the rise of gold. At the time of submission, it is trading at $72,279, rising 1.8% in the past 24 hours and nearly 8% in the past week. Related reports: Black Swan Fund warns: US stocks, cryptocurrency, and gold will "flash crash" before the end of the year? Why is BTC difficult to serve as a war hedging asset even with the big dump of gold and oil? Gold rises $80 to a historical high! Will the Fed's interest rate cut break through $3,000? When will it be BTC's turn? This article was first published in BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media in BlockTempo.