From 100,000 to 75,000: The cyclical truth behind the pullback and signals for the bull run restart

Author: BITCOIN MAGAZINE PRO

Compiled by: Tim, PANews

Bitcoin did not experience the explosive start that many had anticipated in early 2025. After breaking through the $100,000 mark, the price saw a significant decline, leading investors and analysts to question: at which stage of the halving cycle is Bitcoin currently? In this article, we will cut through market noise and deeply analyze a series of key on-chain indicators and macroeconomic signals to assess whether the Bitcoin bull market still has sustainability or if it is about to face a deeper correction?

Health correction or the end of the bull market?

An ideal entry point is the MVRV-Z indicator. This long-standing valuation metric measures asset conditions by comparing the market value of a cryptocurrency to its realized value (Market Value to Realized Value). When this value fell from a peak of 3.36 to around 1.43, it coincided with Bitcoin's price plunging from nearly $100,000 to a temporary low of $75,000. Intuitively, such a 30% price correction is indeed quite drastic.

Figure 1: Recently, the MVRV Z-Score has rebounded from a low of 1.43 in 2025.

Historically, the levels corresponding to the current MVRV-Z indicator have tended to mark local bottoms rather than tops. In previous cycles such as 2017 and 2021, the market experienced similar corrections, and then the BTC price resumed its upward trend. In short, while this wave of decline has shaken investor confidence, it is essentially consistent with historical corrections in a bull cycle.

Follow the movements of smart money

Another key metric is the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) multiple. This metric measures the speed of on-chain transfers of bitcoin by weighting the holding time before it is traded. When the multiple spikes, it usually means that an experienced holder is taking profits; If it is low for a long time, it may indicate that the market is in an accumulation phase.

Currently, this indicator is deeply entrenched in the "green zone," with levels similar to the end of a bear market or the early stages of recovery. Due to the sharp reversal of the BTC price from above $100,000, we may be witnessing the end of profit-taking waves, while some long-term accumulation behaviors have become increasingly evident, indicating that participants are positioning themselves in advance for future price increases.

Figure 2: The current VDD multiple indicates that long-term holders are in the accumulation phase.

One of the most insightful on-chain metrics is the "Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flow Chart", which breaks down realized capital based on its age, isolating different groups such as new entrants (holding for < 1 month) and medium-term holders (1-2 years) to observe the capital migration path. The red band (new entrants) rose sharply near the all-time high of $106,000, indicating that there was plenty of panic buying at the top of the market at that time, driven by FOMO sentiment. Since then, the group's activity has cooled significantly, falling back to levels consistent with the early to mid-term bull market.

On the contrary, groups holding tokens for 1-2 years (usually macro-insightful accumulators) have restarted their accumulation trend. This inverse correlation reveals the core logic of market operation: when long-term holders accumulate chips at the bottom, new investors are often experiencing panic selling or choosing to exit the market. This alternating flow of funds aligns closely with the "accumulation-distribution" pattern observed during the complete bull market cycle of 2020-2021, reproducing the typical characteristics of historical cycles.

Figure 3: The Bitcoin cycle capital flow chart shows that BTC is flowing back into the hands of more experienced holders.

What stage are we at now?

From a macro perspective, we divide the Bitcoin market cycle into three key stages:

1. Bear Market Phase: Deep Correction (70-90%)
2. Recovery Phase: Regaining Historical Highs
3. Bull Market Growth Stage: Parabolic Rise After Breaking Previous Highs

The bear markets of 2015 and 2018 lasted approximately 13 to 14 months each. Our recent bear market cycle also lasted 14 months. The market recovery phase in historical cycles generally takes 23 to 26 months, and we are currently within this typical recovery time window.

Figure 4: Using historical cyclical trends to predict potential bull market peaks

However, the performance during this bull market phase has been somewhat unusual. Bitcoin did not immediately experience a surge after breaking through its historical high but instead showed a correction. This may indicate that the market is building a higher low before entering a steeper ascending channel in the exponential growth phase. If we reference the average durations of 9 months and 11 months from past cycles, assuming the bull market can continue, we estimate that the potential peak of this cycle may occur around September 2025.

macro risk

Although on-chain data is encouraging, macroeconomic headwinds still persist. An analysis of the correlation chart between the S&P 500 index and Bitcoin indicates that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with the U.S. stock market. As concerns about a potential global recession intensify, the ongoing weakness in traditional markets may impact Bitcoin's ability to rebound in the short term.

Figure 5: Correlation between Bitcoin and US Stocks

Conclusion

As we have seen in the analysis, key on-chain indicators such as the MVRV Z-score, value days destroyed, and Bitcoin cycle fund flows indicate that the market is exhibiting a healthy development trend consistent with cyclical patterns, and showing signs of continued accumulation by long-term holders. However, there are still significant macroeconomic uncertainties in the market, which are key risks that need to be closely monitored.

This cycle is slower and more volatile than previous cycles, but it has not broken the historical structural pattern. Bitcoin seems poised for another upside and could reach a new peak in Q3 or early Q4 if the traditional market does not deteriorate further.